Jamesb101.com

commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Daniel…..THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT MOVES 44 Democratic Held House Seats towards Republicans = BIG WAVE COMING?

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

“The Rothenberg Political Report” on Friday moved 44 Democratic-held House Seats towards Republicans AND we’re now starting to have 16 Seats either into the Lean R or Toss-Up/Tilt R Column.

Here is what Rothenberg says:

We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.

Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.

We’ve moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats.

Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* – Moved benefiting Republicans
Special Elections in italics

Pure Toss-Up (1 R, 13 D)

  • AR 1 (Open; Berry, D)
  • FL 24 (Kosmas, D) *
  • IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
  • IL 14 (Foster, D) *
  • MI 1 (Open; Stupak, D)
  • MI 7 (Schauer, D)
  • NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
  • NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
  • NY 24 (Arcuri, D) *
  • NV 3 (Titus, D) *
  • PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
  • PA 12 (Open; Murtha, D) *
  • TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
  • WA 3 (Open; Baird, D)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (0 R, 9 D)

  • AL 2 (Bright, D)
  • AR 2 (Open; Snyder, D) *
  • FL 8 (Grayson, D)
  • ID 1 (Minnick, D)
  • IN 8 (Open; Ellsworth, D) *
  • KS 3 (Open; Moore, D)
  • MS 1 (Childers, D)
  • VA 2 (Nye, D) *
  • VA 5 (Perriello, D)

Lean Republican (3 R, 7 D)

  • CA 3 (Lungren, R)
  • CO 4 (Markey, D) *
  • FL 25 (Open; M. Diaz-Balart, R) #
  • LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
  • MD 1 (Kratovil, D) *
  • NM 2 (Teague, D) *
  • NY 29 (Open; Massa, D) *
  • OH 1 (Driehaus, D) *
  • OH 15 (Kilroy, D) *
  • WA 8 (Reichert, R)

Republican Favored (5 R, 1 D)

  • CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
  • NE 2 (Terry, R)
  • OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
  • PA 6 (Gerlach, R) *
  • PA 15 (Dent, R)
  • TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *

Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 4 D)

  • HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) *
  • ND A-L (Pomeroy, D) *
  • SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
  • WV 1 (Mollohan, D) *

Lean Democratic (1 R, 15 D)

  • AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) *
  • AZ 8 (Giffords, D) *
  • DE -AL (Open; Castle, R) *
  • IN 9 (Hill, D)
  • IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
  • MA 10 (Open; Delahunt, D) *
  • MO 4 (Skelton, D)
  • NJ 3 (Adler, D) *
  • NY 1 (Bishop, D)
  • NY 19 (Hall, D)
  • OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
  • OH 18 (Space, D) *
  • PA 4 (Altmire, D) *
  • PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
  • VA 9 (Boucher, D) *
  • WI 7 (Obey, D) *

Democrat Favored (1 R, 19 D)

  • CA 11 (McNerney, D)
  • CO 3 (Salazar, D)
  • CT 5 (Murphy, D)
  • FL 22 (Klein, D) *
  • IL 11 (Halvorson, D) *
  • IN 2 (Donnelly, D) *
  • LA 2 (Cao, R)
  • NM 1 (Heinrich, D) *
  • NY 13 (McMahon, D)
  • NY 20 (Murphy, D)
  • NY 23 (Owens, D) #
  • NC 8 (Kissell, D)
  • OH 13 (Sutton, D) *
  • PA 3 (Dahlkemper, D) *
  • PA 8 (Murphy, D) *
  • PA 10 (Carney, D) *
  • PA 17 (Holden, D)
  • SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D)
  • TX 17 (Edwards, D)
  • WI 8 (Kagen, D)

Total seats in play: 79
Republican seats: 11
Democratic seats: 68

Seats that dropped from the List:

MN 3 (Paulsen, R) *, MN 6 (Bachmann, R) *, OH 2 (Schmidt, R) *, CA 44 (Calvert, R) *, CA 47 (Sanchez, D) #, GA 8 (Marshall, D) #

So, the Democrats are already DOWN BIG.

If you put together those Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (9); Lean Republican (7) and Republican Favored (1) Democrats are now down 17 House Seats. That leaves us 23 Seats short with 7 months to go. Plenty of time to catch up.

If you look at the “Election Projection Forecast for the House” and now on Rothenberg you’ll see Scott’s assessment on the House Districts flipping only mirror slightly.

Election Projection has the GOP up 21 Seats while Rothenberg has GOP up 17 Seats.

Daniel G.

Daniel….Daniel…..no matter how you bend it…twist it……or turn it around…..it appears…at this time …that the Democrats will keep both Houses of Congress….sure the Democrats will have loses….but…that always happens to the party  in power during mid-term elections…..

Thank you for acknowledging that …..

Advertisements

April 18, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , , | 5 Comments

Daniel……The Pennsylvania – 12 Special Election will be a Referendum on the passed Health Care Reform Plan

Hello Dog Folks!

It’s heating up.

Just this week after Florida State Senator Ted Deutch (D-FL) won the Special Election in FL-19 “The Dog” claimed as well as the President, that Deutch’s Victory was a Referendum on the passed Health Care Reform Plan.

I SHARPLY DISAGREED over it because:

1. Republican Ed Lynch had almost NO MONEY

and

2. You would expect Democrats electing a Democrat in a STAUNCHLY PVI D + 15 District.

So, they did a nice Spin Try on this. They both are fools.

Yesterday we got the exceptional good News that Republican Charles Djou (R-HI) leads in the Hawaii Special Election.

Today I just have to laugh at Democrat Mark S. Critz (D-PA) who is running in PA-12 to fill the partial Term of the late John Murtha (D-PA). This fool has to cut an TV-Ad distancing himself from the unpoplar Plan.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/35943.html

Mark my words: The PA-12 will be a Referendum on the Plan and if WE win this Election we’re in very good shape for November.

On the heels of that Ad PPP’s Tom Jensen who will have a Poll out next week for this District posts the following on his Twitter:

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/12351715333 and I quote: “Obama massively unpopular in the District, Race surprisingly close given that.

So, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Republican Tim Burns (R-PA) is leading here. This is a PVI R + 1 District BUT given that PA Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) has put the Date of this Vote on the exact same Day of the Pennsylvania Primaries we’ve still a very uphill Battle here.

Still, the initial Observation Jensen sees looks good for us.

Daniel G.

Yo Daniel!….my claim was the election was NOT connected to Healthcare….. which I think has passed its high point…The GOP wants to keep the fight over the Healthcare Bill alive …It won’t work.….

Here’s the quote from the Fl-19th Special post from the Dog……

“In EVERY Election after now …Healthcare will pay a bit part…….”

Also my mention of Lynch’s lack of money in the heavy democratic leaning district…….

To be fair…Lynch had almost no money in this heavy Democratic Congressional District…….”

The GOP is trying to ride that tired horse at their own risk……

That Dog isn’t going to hunt……

Nuff Said……..

(He, he, he…this reminds me of my early days at P1!……Love it! )

(here’s the link to the orignal Deuch post……

April 17, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , | 5 Comments

Daniel…..Revisiting November Election Projection……

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

Back in January I vistited my friend Scott Elliott over at “Election Projection”.

His Site is really MARVELLOUS and will be updated throughout the year until November.

The Projections are based on Polling BUT with an Election Formula that you can find on his Website.

It’s similar to “Daniel G’s Projections” although I’m doing it slightly diffencent as I have a little more tools than him.

Still his Site is great and I’ve used it as first place to start my own Projections.

So, based on his Projections we’re ( GOP ) going to win the following Seats:

THE SENATE:

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Colorado (Bennet)

Delaware (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

North Dakota (Open)

Pennsylvania (Specter)

Projected Tally as of today: Democrats 49 Seats, Republicans 49, Independents 2 Seats

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/senate10.php

THE HOUSE

Seats that are projected to go from Democrat to Republican:

Arkansas – 2 (Open)

Colorado – 4 (Markey)

Idaho – 1 (Minnick)

Indiana – 1 (Open)

Indiana – 9 (Hill)

Kansas – 3 (Open)

Louisiana – 3 (Open)

Maryland – 1 (Kratochvil)

Michigan – 1 (Open)

Michigan – 7 (Schauer)

Mississippi – 1 (Childers)

Nevada – 3 (Titus)

New Hampshire – 1 (Shea-Porter)

New Hampshire – 2 (Open)

New Mexico – 2 (Teague)

New York – 29 (Open, possible Special Election)

Ohio – 1 (Driehaus)

Ohio – 15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania – 7 (Open)

Tennessee – 6 (Open)

Tennessee – 8 (Open)

Virginia – 5 (Open)

Washington – 3 (Open)

Seats that are projected to go from Republican to Democrat:

Delaware At-Large (Open)

Louisiana – 2 (Cao)

Projected Tally as of today: Democrats 236 Seats, Repblicans 199 Seats

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/house10.php

THE GOVERNORSHIPS:

Seats projected to go from Democrat to Republican:

Illinois (Quinn)

Iowa (Culver)

Kansas (Open)

Michigan (Open)

Oklahoma (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Tennessee (Open)

Wisconsin (Open)

Wyoming (Open)

Seats Projected to go from Republican to Democrat:

California (Open)

Connecticut (Open)

Hawaii (Open)

Minnesota (Open)

Vermont (Open)

Seats Projected to go from Democrat to Independent:

Rhode Island (Open)

Projected Tally as of today: Democrats 21 Seats, Republicans 28 Seats, Independents 1 Seat

http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/governors10.php

Please visit his Site often for Updates.

Daniel G.


April 17, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | , , | 23 Comments