Daniel….. Florida Senate: Crist trails Rubio BIG in Republican Primary but could win an Independent Bid according to a new Quinnipiac University Survey ……

Hello Dog Folks and Good Morning!

What will Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) do with his Senate Race?

There is now INCREASING Speculation that Crist could just change his mind and run as Independent in November.

The Wall Street Journal reported just YESTERDAY that Key Advisors of the Crist Campaign pushing for an Independent Senate Bid AND Crist himself dodged a Question on the Senate Race to a Reporter in Tampa.

On the heels of all this buzz Quinnipiac University is out with a Survey today showing Crist would do MUCH BETTER should he decide to run as Independent.

Crist leads Rubio in a 3-way Race for the General Election in November BY TWO POINTS.

Quinnipiac Unversity Survey

Florida Senate 2010

Republican Primary

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio  56 %
Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist  33 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  10 %

General Election

[ Crist, Rubio and Meek ]

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (R)  48 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  34 %
Others  2 %
Undecided  14 %

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  42 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  38 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  17 %

3-way General Election with Crist running as Independent

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist (I)  32 %
Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R)  30 %
U. S. Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (D)  24 %
Undecided  12 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

https://www.marcorubio.com/
http://charliecrist.com/
http://www.kendrickmeek.com/

Job Approvals

Governor Charlie Crist (R)

Approve  49 %
Disapprove  39 %
Not Sure  12 %

Senator Bill Nelson (D)

Approve  43 %
Disapprove  30 %
Not Sure  26 %

Senator George Lemieux (R)

Approve  20 %
Disapprove  21 %
Not Sure  59 %

Analysis:

IF Crist runs as Independent Meek is the BIG Loser.

IF Crist stays BUT also wins the Republican Primary Meek is FINISHED too.

A Rubio – Meek Race is currently a Toss-Up.

One interesting Caveat: How will the Health Care Issue play with Florida Senior Voters come November? MEEK IS SO STAUNCHLY LIBERAL that regardless how the Numbers against Rubio look like today I’m still not nervous.

The DSCC WILL CEDE Florida come August. Meek won’t get one Penny from them.

Daniel G.

Daniel…I ‘m still for  Rubio/Meek general……

And I think that Healthcare is finished as a factor in most of the November races……

Counterpoint….Zogby has Gov. Crist 9% ahead of Rubio in Florida…..

We’re talking about the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat….. we posted a Rasmussen poll that had them even at  earlier in the day…..

This one has them at Crist 45%….Rubio 36%……

Here’s the link…..

Although this is a  Zogby Poll (???)…I’m inclined to think Crist is ahead down there by a hair…..

My poll guy will contact me in afew hours ….I’m sure….we’ll update then……

Current Florida general election contest for Senator…….

Rasmussen Survey

Florida Senate 2010

General Election

Marco Rubio (R) 49 %
Kendrick Meek (D) 35 %
Others 4 %
Undecided 12 %

Charlie Crist (R) 42 %
Kendrick Meek (D) 36 %
Others 11 %
Undecided 11 %

This one is a surprise for me…..I would think that Kendrick Meek the leading democrat would do better against Marco Rubio at this time….but my alter-ego here at the Dog thinks Rubio is for real….I will argue that Meek should be able to close (carrying democrats, indie’s and moderate GOPer’s) if Rubio pulls out the nomination, since there should be problem with Rubio moving to the right of Crist (who lead this by miles a few months ago), who is a moderate republican….moderates are an endangered species these day’s huh?

New Rasmussen Poll has GOP Florida senate primary race tied!……

Charlie Crist,  the Florida Governor has lost his entire lead to former state House speaker Marco Rubio…….

The newest poll has both tied at 43% each……

We have all watched as the moderate Crist began to lose his lead to the right leading Rubio…..Crist like others in both parties (a lot of democrats in GOP district’s are not running next year) is a victim of the GOP move to the right to regain voters after the Obama presidential win……

My hope is that Rubio’s ascension in the polls and right leanings, will help Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla) capture the senate seat in the general election……

GOP 2012…..Huckabee pulls ahead……….and works the money train…..

It seems that in the early race for the GOP nod for the 2012 Presidential run, former Arkansas Republican Governor,  Mike Huckabee has pulled ahead………A new Rasmussen Poll…has him leading Romney ( who\’s PAC has $2 million vs Hucks $430,000, or so ) by  44% to 39% …….now I know it’s three years out…but the race has already begun and will be the exclusive primary story since Obama will be the democratic nominee………..

And just in case you didn’t  know this……Huckabee favors the conservative republican, Marco Rubio in Florida, over the moderate republican Governor Charlie Crist in that states run for the senate…..Says Huckabee of Rubio…..“It stunned me when the [National Republican Senatorial Committee] came out and made an endorsement for Charlie Crist in that race. That was absurd,” Huckabee said. “Guys like Marco are the future of the party. What I see in him is what I want to see in all of our candidates.”.

The thought that Crist has clear sailing down there is increasing becoming clouded…….

Interestingly, right now Palin leads forever choice Newt Gingrich in that poll…….

Stay tuned for more……….