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SE on the 2010 Georgia Races – Take 2……..

Here’s a rundown of how I think the 2010 GA races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Republican Governor George “Sonny” Perdue is term-limited. On the Republican side, State Senators Jeff Chapman and Eric Johnson, Congressman Nathan Deal, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, Radio Station Owner Ray McBerry, State Insurance Commissioner John W. Oxendine, and Wal-Mart Employee Otis Putnam are in the running. On the Democratic side, Attorney General Thurbert Baker, former Governor Roy Barnes, Management Technical Consultant Bill Bolton, Ray City Mayor Carl Camon, Entrepreneur Randal Mangham, State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, and former Labor Commissioner David Poythress are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Grady County Planning Commission Member John Monds. The Independents have unified behind Ray Boyd. Environmental Activist Sam Hay III is running as a write-in candidate. I expect Oxendine and Deal to make it into the Runoff. Oxendine will defeat Deal 59-41 in the Runoff. I expect Barnes to handily emerge 55-34-8-2-1 over Baker, Porter, Poythress, and Camon(Bolton and Mangham will poll below 1%). I see Oxendine prevailing over Barnes, Monds, and Boyd 52-43-4-1. GOP HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Cagle. On the Democratic side, Journalist Tricia Carpenter-McCracken and Businesswoman and wife of State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter Carol Porter. I see Porter emerging over McCracken 76-24. I expect Cagle to trounce Porter 63-37. GOP HOLD.

Secretary of State: Appointed Incumbent Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp will stand for election. On the Republican side, Kemp and Sandy Springs City Councilor Doug MacGinnitie are in the running. On the Democratic side, State Senator and 06′ nominee Gail Buckner, Attorney Gary Horlacher, Real Estate Saleswoman Georganna Sinkfield, Public Relations Executive Michael Mills, and Businesswoman Angela Moore are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Aeronautics Industry Analyst David Chastain. The GOP Primary is a complete tossup. I see Buckner, Horlacher, and Mills as the Democratic frontrunners. Whoever the GOP nominates will defeat whoever the Democrats nominate. Kemp 65-35 over Horlacher, Kemp 61-39 over Mills, Kemp 59-41 over Buckner, MacGinnitie 60-40 over Horlacher, MacGinnitie over Mills 58-42, or MacGinnitie over Buckner 55-45. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Thurbert Baker is running for Governor. On the Democratic side, former Dougherty Circuit District Attorney Ken Hodges and State Representative Rob Teilhet are in the running. On the Republican side, Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens, State Senator Preston Smith, and former US Attorney Max Wood are in the running. I see Teilhet emerging over Hodges 65-35. The GOP Primary is a complete Tossup. Regardless of who wins the GOP Primary, the race is a TOSSUP.

State School Superintendent: Incumbent Republican State School Superintendent Kathy Cox is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Cox and School System Administrators John D. Barge and Richard Woods are in the running. On the Democratic side, University Administrator Beth Farokhi, Educator Sandra Cannon Scott, and Teachers Joe Martin and Brian Westlake are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Teacher Kira Willis. The GOP Primary is a complete Tossup. I see Farokhi prevailing over Westlake, Martin, and Scott 57-34-5-4. I see whoever the Republicans nominate defeating Farokhi. Cox 53-42-5, Barge 55-42-3, or woods 57-40-3. GOP HOLD.

State Agriculture Commissioner: Incumbent Democratic State Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin is retiring. The Democrats have unified behind State Senator JB Powell. On the Republican side, Georgia Agribusiness Council President Gary Black and former USDA Official Darwin Carter are in the running. I see Black beating Carter 61-39. I see Black beating Powell 56-44. GOP GAIN.

State Insurance Commissioner: Incumbent Republican State Insurance Commissioner John W. Oxendine is running for Governor. On the Republican side, Attorney’s Rick Collum and Maria Sheffield, State Senators Seth Harp and Ralph Hudgens, State Representative Tom Knox, Insurance Brokers Dennis Cain, John Mamalakis, and Stephen D. Northington, and Health Benefits Consultant Gerry Purcell are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind former State Senator Mary Squires. I see Harp, Knox, Northington, and Purcell as the frontrunners for the GOP Primary. Whoever wins will beat Squires by a large margin. Harp 64-63, Knox 64-36, Northington 60-40, or Purcell 59.5-40.5. GOP HOLD.

State Labor Commissioner: Incumbent Democratic State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond is running for the US Senate. On the Democratic side, Deputy Agriculture Commissioner Terry Coleman and Lobbyist Darryl Hicks. On the Republican side, State Representatives Mark Butler and Melvin Everson are in the running. Coleman will defeat Hicks 57-43. The GOP Primary is a tossup. I see the General as a TOSSUP.

Public Service Commission: Incumbent Republican Public Service Commissioner Bobby Baker is retiring. On the Republican side, Developer B. Joseph Brush, State Senators John Douglas and Jeff May, and Non-Profit Executive Tim Echols are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Government Affairs Consultant Keith Moffett. I see Douglas, May, and Echols as the GOP frontrunners. Whoever wins will handily defeat Moffett. Douglas 62-38, May 60-40, or Echols 58-42. GOP HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent Republican US Senator Johnny Isakson is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Isakson. On the Democratic side, former Rockdale County Commission Chief of Staff RJ Hadley and State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Airline Pilot Chuck Donovan. I see Thurmond crushing Hadley 67-33. I see Isakson prevailing over Thurmond 53-47. GOP HOLD.

US Congress……..

For More…….

May 1, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , | 2 Comments

SE on the 2010 Virginia Races…….

Here’s a Rundown of how I think the 2010 VA races will go:

Congress: The GOP holds districts 1, 4, 6, and 7. The Democrats hold district 3.

VA-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Glenn Nye is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Nye. On the GOP side, former Virginia Beach GOP Chair Kenny Golden, Engineering Contractor Ben Loyola, Defense Contractor Ed Maulbeck, Army Reserve Brigadier General Bet Mizusawa, Auto Dealer Scott Rigell, and Businessman Scott Taylor are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Computer Systems Engineer Doug Hutchinson. The GOP Primary is a tossup between Golden and Mizusawa. Whoever wins will defeat Nye. 52-48 Golden. 54-46 Mizusawa. GOP GAIN.

VA-05: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Tom Perriello is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Perriello. On the GOP side, Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, Businessman Ron Ferrin, State Senator Robert Hurt, Real Estate Developers Jim McKelvey and Laurence Verga, Airline Pilot Michael McPadden, and Teacher Feda Morton. On the Independent side, Tea Party Activist Jeff Clark and Factory Worker Bradley Rees are in the running. The GOP Primary is a tossup between Boyd and Hurt. Whoever wins will upend Perriello. Boyd 51-49. Hurt 53-47. GOP GAIN.

VA-08: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Moran is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Moran and Attorney’s Matt Famiglietti and Ronald Mitchell are in the running. On the GOP side, former Federal Communications Commission General Counsel Matthew Berry, Banker Mark Ellmore, Retired Army Officer Patrick Murray, and Communications Consultant Laurence Socci are in the running. The Indy Greens have unified behind Retired Navy Officer Ron Fisher. The Independents have unified behind Carvel St. John. I expect Berry to win convincingly in the Primary and lose to Moran 63-37. DEM HOLD.

VA-09: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Rick Boucher is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Boucher. On the GOP side, retired Businessman Jim Bebout, State House Majority Leader Morgan Griffifth, Surveyor Adam Light, retired Army Officer David Moore, and Electrical Engineer Jessee Ring. The Independents have unified behind Farmer Jeremiah Heaton. I expect Griffifth to demolish the field of GOP’ers and defeat Boucher 53-47. GOP GAIN.

VA-10: Incumbent GOP Congressman Frank Wolf is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Wolf and Defense Contractor Jim Trautz are in the running. On the Democratic side, Workforce Development Consultant Richard Anthony, Consultant Jeff Barnett, Architect Dennis Findley, and Brain Injury Survivor and Felon Julien Modica are in the running. I see Wolf and Anthony emerging from their Primaries and I expect Wolf to beat Anthony 59-41. GOP HOLD.

VA-11: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Gerry Connolly is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Connolly. On the GOP side, Home Inspection Company CEO Keith Fimian, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, and Paul Miller are in the running. I expect Herrity to defeat Fimian and Miller 54-44-2. Herrity will defeat Connolly 52-48. GOP GAIN.

SE-779

March 8, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Updates, Women | , , | 3 Comments

SE on the 2010 New Mexico races……

From SE………….

Here’s a rundown of how I think the NM races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Richardson is term-limited. The Democrats have unified behind Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. On the GOP side, State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones, Attorney Pete Domeneci Jr., Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, Public Relations Firm Owner Doug Turner, and former State GOP Chairman Allen Weh are in the running. The GOP Primary is a tossup. Denish will defeat whoever the GOP nominates. DEM HOLD.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is running for Governor. On the Democratic side, State Representative Joe Campos, former State Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colón, State Senators Linda Lopez and Jerry Ortiz y Pino, former Albuquerque Chief Administrative Officer Lawrence Rael, and Sante Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano are in the running. On the GOP side, Cardiologist JR Damron and former State Representative Brian Moore are in the running. The Democratic Primary is a tossup. I expect Moore to defeat Damron 69-31, and lose to whoever the Democrats nominate. DEM HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Marty Herrera is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Herrera. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Auditor: Incumbent Democratic State Auditor Hector Balderas is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Balderas. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer James Lewis is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Lewis. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Gary King is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind King. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Commissioner of Public Lands: Incumbent GOP State Commissioner of Public Lands Pat Lyons is retiring. On the GOP side, retired Law Enforcement Officer Errol Chavez and State Public Regulation Commission Employee Bob Cornelius are in the running. On the Democratic side, Santa Fe County Commissioner Mike Anaya and Harry Montoya, State Public Regulation Commission Chairwoman Sandy Jones, and former State Land Commissioner Ray Powell are in the running. I expect Cornelius to prevail 77-23 over Chavez. The Democratic Primary is a tossup. I expect Whoever the Democrats nominate to defeat Cornelius. DEM GAIN.

NM-01: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Heinrich. The GOP has unified behind former State GOP Vice Chair Jon Barela. The Constitution Party has unified behind Religious Right Activist Jerry Scott. The Libertarians have unified behind Attorney Alan Woodruff. I expect Heinrich to defeat Barela 57-42. DEM HOLD.

NM-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Harry Teague is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Teague. The GOP has unified behind former Congressman Steve Pearce. I expect Pearce to prevail 52-48. GOP GAIN.

NM-03: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Lujan. On the GOP side, Iraq War Veteran Adam Kokesh and Businessman Tom Mullins are in the running. The GOP Primary is a tossup. Lujan will defeat whoever the GOP nominates. DEM HOLD.

SE – 779

February 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates | , , | 3 Comments

SE on the Rhode Island Races……

From SE……

Here’s a rundown of how I think the RI races will go:

Governor: Incumbent GOP Governor Donald Carcieri is term-limited. The GOP has unified behind former Gubernatorial Aide John Robitaille. On the Democratic side, General Treasurer Frank Caprio and Attorney General Patrick Lynch are in the running. The Cool Mooses have unified behind Attorney Bob Healey Jr. On the Independent side, former US Senator Lincoln Chaffee and General Contractor Todd Giroux are in the running. I expect Caprio to defeat Lynch 52-48, and lose to Chaffee 41-37, with Robitallie receiving 22%. INDY GAIN.

Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Roberts. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

Secretary of State: Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Ralph Mollis is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Mollis. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Patrick Lynch is running fcr Governor. On the Democratic side, Smithfield City Councilman Steve Archambault, Providence City Solicitor Joe Fernandez, and State House Majority Whip Peter Kilmartin. The GOP has unified behind former Special Assistant Attorney General Erik Wallin. I expect Kilmartin to prevail big time, and defeat Wallin 59-41. DEM HOLD.

General Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic General Treasurer Frank Caprio is running for Governor. The Democrats have unified behind Software Engineer Tom Sgouros. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

RI-01: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Patrick Kennedy is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Kennedy. The GOP has unified behind State House Minority Whip John Loughlin. In this climate I expect Loughlin to narrowly prevail by about 491 votes. GOP GAIN.

RI-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Jim Langevin is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Langevin and former State Representative Betsy Dennigan are in the running. On the GOP side, Attorney Michael Gardiner and former North Kingston Town Councilman Mark Zaccaria are in the running. I expect Langevin to thump Dennigan 60-40 and Zaccaria to defeat Gardiner 67-33. I expect Langevin to take Zaccaria out to pasture 64-36. DEM HOLD.

SE-779

February 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates | , , | 4 Comments

SE on the 2011 Governor races……

This from SE……
Here’s an early take on the 2011 Gubernatorial races:

Mississippi: Incumbent GOP Governor Haley Barbour is term-limited. Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant is the only announced GOP candidate. Potential candidates for the Republicans are Commercial Building Contractor Dave Dennis, former Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck, Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann Jr., State Auditor Stacey Pickering, State Treasurer Tate Reeves, State Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Lester Spell Jr., State Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney, former Congressman Chip Pickering, Senator Roger Wicker, and Congressman Gregg Harper. Potential candidates for the Democrats are Attorney’s John Arthur Eaves and Bill Luckett, Attorney General Jim Hood, former Attorney General Mike Moore, State Representative Steve Holland, and Congressmen Travis Childers, Bennie Thompson, and Gene Taylor. Considering the quality of the candidates on both sides and the political climate in 2011, I rate this one LEANS REPUBLICAN.

Kentucky: Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear is running for re-election, and has chosen Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson as his running mate. Demolition Contractor Otis “Bullman” Hensley Jr. has announced his challenge to Beshear in the Democratic Primary. Potential candidates for the Republicans are Congressmen Ed Whitfield, S. Brett Guthrie, and Geoff Davis, Secretary of State Trey Grayson(if he fails at his Senate run), Physician Rand Paul(if he fails at his Senate run), former State Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson, and State Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer. TOSSUP.

Louisiana: Incumbent GOP Governor Bobby Jindal is running for re-election. Minister Dennis “Dan” Northcutt has announced his challenge to Jindal in the Republican Primaries. Potential candidates for the Democrats are Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landireu(if he fails in his bid for New Orleans Mayor), State Senator Eric LaFleur, former Congressman Don Cazayoux, State Representatives Damon Baldone, Fred Mills, Gary Smith, Mike Powell, and Michael Jackson, Attorney General James “Buddy” Caldwell, former Attorneys General Richard Ieyoub and Charles C. Foti Jr., former State Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry Bob Odom, State Natural Resources Secretary Scott Angelle, Ascension Parish Sheriff Jeffrey Wiley, Congressman Charlie Melancon(if he fails at his Senate bid), former Governor Kathleen Blanco, former PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell, and State Senator Walter Boasso. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

SE-779

February 6, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates | , , | 1 Comment

SE with an Early look at the 2012 Governor races……

From SE………………

Unknown Incumbents: NH, UT, and VT.

Montana: Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer is term limited. Potential candidates for the Democrats include Lieutenant Governor John Bohlinger, Secretary of State Linda McCullough, Attorney General Steve Bullock, State Auditor Monica Lindeen, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau, Senator Jon Tester, and State Democratic Party Chairman Dennis McDonald. Potential candidates for the GOP are Congressman Dennis Rehberg, former State Senator Roy Brown, former Secretary of State Brad Johnson, and former State Representative Duane Grimes. Considering the quality of the potential candidates, I rate this LEANS DEMOCRAT.

West Virginia: Incumbent Democratic Governor Joe Manchin is term limited. Candidates for the Democrats include state Senators Jeffrey V. Kessler and Walt Helmick. Other potential candidates include State Treasurer John Perdue, Lieutenant Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, State Senator Robert Plymale, State House Speaker Richard Thompson, State Auditor Glen Gainer, State Agriculture Commissioner Gus Douglass, Attorney General Darrell McGraw, Congressman Nick Rahall, and state Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. Potential candidates for the Republicans include former State Secretary of State Betty Ireland, State Senate Minority Leader Dan Caruth, State Senate Minority Whip Clark S. Barnes, State House Minority Leader Tim Armstead, State House Minority Whip Larry Border, Assistant Minority Whips Troy Andes, Ray Canterbury, and Lynwood “Woody” Ireland, and Representative Shelley Moore Capito. Considering the quality of the potential candidates, I rate this LEANS DEMOCRAT.

Indiana: Incumbent GOP Governor Mitch Daniels is term-limited. Potential candidates for the Republicans include Lieutenant Governor Becky Skillman, Secretary of State Todd Rokita, Attorney General Greg Zoeller, former Attorney General Steve Carter, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Bennett, State Treasurer Richard Murdock, State Auditor Tim Berry, Congressmen Mark Souder and Mike Pence, former Congressman and Club for Growth President Chris Chocola, and Conservative Activist Eric Miller. Potential candidates for the Democrats are Businessman Jim Schellinger, former Representative Jill Long Thompson, Mayor of Evansville Jonathan Weinzapfel, Mayor of Hammond Thomas McDermott Jr., Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez, and Congressmen Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth, Andre Carson, Peter Visclosky, and Joe Donnelly. Considering the quality of the potential candidates, I rate this LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Delaware: Incumbent Democratic Governor Jack Markell is probably running for re-election. Potential candidates for the Republicans are former Deputy Attorney General Ferris Wharton, State Auditor Tom Wagner, former US Attorney Colm Connolly, former State Senator Charlie Copeland, Drugstore Chain CEO Alan Levin, Wilmington Trust President Robert Harra, State Representatives Debbie Hudson and Tom Kovach. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Missouri: Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon is probably running for re-election. Potential candidates for the Republicans are Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, Congressmen Todd Akin, Sam Graves, and Blaine Luetkemeyer, and Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

North Carolina: Incumbent Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue is probably running for re-election. Potential Democratic opponents to Perdue’s renomination are Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, Attorney General Roy Cooper, State Auditor Beth Wood, State Treasurer Janet Cowell, Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, State Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin, and Congressmen GK Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, David Price, Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell, Heath Schuler, Mel Watt, and Brad Miller. Potential candidates for the Republicans include former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, former Raleigh Mayor Paul Colbe, President of High Point University Nido Qubein, State Senate Minority Leader Phil Berger, Congressmen Walter Jones Jr. and Patrick McHenry, and Congresswoman Sue Myrick. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Washington: Incumbent Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire is probably running for re-election. Potential Democratic opponents include Congressmen Jay Inslee, Rick Larsen, Norm Dicks, Jim McDermott, and Adam Smith, Lieutenant Governor Brad Owen, State Treasurer Jim McIntire, State Auditor Brian Sonntag, State Commissioner of Public Lands Peter Goldmark, Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler, and Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon. Potential candidates for the Republicans include Secretary of State Sam Reed, Attorney General Rob McKenna, former State Senator Dino Rossi, Congressmen Doc Hastings and Dave Reichert, and Congresswoman Cathy McMorris-Rogers. TOSSUP.

North Dakota: Incumbent Republican Governor John Hoeven is poised to succeed Byron Dorgan as US Senator from North Dakota, meaning Lieutenant Governor Jack Darymphle will be the Governor in 2012. Potential candidates for the Democrats are Congressman Earl Pomeroy, former Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson, State School Superintendent Wayne G. Sanstead, former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, former State Senator Joel Heitkamp, and State Senator Tim Mathern. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

SE-779….

February 5, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates | , , | 3 Comments

SE on the Kansas races……

Here’s a rundown of how I think the Kansas races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson is retiring. The Democrats have unified behind Disabled Paramedic Herb West III. The GOP has unified behind US Senator Sam Brownback. I expect Brownback to roll West 72-28. GOP GAIN.

Secretary of State: Incumbent GOP Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh is retiring. On the GOP side, former Business Lobbyist JR Claceys and former State GOP Chairman Kris Kobach are in the running. On the Democratic side, former State Securities Commissioner Chris Biggs and State Senator Chris Steineger are in the running. I expect Kobach to prevail over Claeys 58-42. I also expect Biggs to defeat Steineger 56-44. I expect Kobach to prevail over Biggs 55-45. GOP HOLD.

Attorney General: Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Stephen N. Six is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Six. On the GOP side, former Assistant Attorney General Ralph DeZago and State Senate Majority Leader Derek Schmidt are in the running. I expect Schmidt to defeat DeZago 54-46 and upend Six 53-47. GOP GAIN.

State Treasurer: Incumbent Democratic State Treasurer Dennis McKinney is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind McKinney. The GOP has no announced or potential candidates. DEM HOLD.

State Insurance Commissioner: Incumbent GOP State Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Praeger and Insurance Agent David Powell are in the running. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. Praeger will defeat Powell 68-32. GOP HOLD.

US Senate: Incumbent GOP US Senator Sam Brownback is running for Governor. On the GOP side, Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are in the running. On the Democratic side, Retired Communications Executive Charles Schollenberger and Attorney Stanley Wiles are in the running. I expect Moran to defeat Tiahrt 53-47 and Schollenberger to defeat Wiles 59-41. I expect Moran to crush Schollenberger 65-35. GOP HOLD.

KS-01: Incumbent GOP Congressman Jerry Moran is running for US Senate. On the GOP side, State Senators Jim Barnett and Tim Huelskamp, College Instructor Sue Boldra, Attorney Marck Cobb, Commercial Realtor Tracey Mann, former Salina Mayor Monte Shadwick, and former Chief of Staff to US Senator Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind former Salina Mayor Alan Jilka. I expect Huelskamp to emerge from his Primary and defeat Jilka 62-38. GOP HOLD.

KS-02: Incumbent GOP Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins is running for re-election. On the GOP side, Jenkins and State Senator Dennis Pyle are in the running. On the Democratic side, there are no announced candidates, but State Senator Tom Holland is considering the race. I expect Jenkins to defeat Pyle 54-46 and either run unopposed or defeat Holland if he runs. GOP HOLD.

KS-03: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Dennis Moore is retiring. The Democrats have no announced candidates, but potential candidates include State House Minority Leader Paul Davis, Governor Mark Parkinson, Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon, and State Senator and current Secretary of State candidate Chris Steineger. On the GOP side, former State Senators Mark Gilstrap and Nick Jordan, Iraq War Veteran Daniel Gilyeat, former State Representative Patricia Lightner, Businessman John Rysavy, Database Consultant Thomas Scherer, and State Representative Kevin Yoder. The GOP frontrunners are Jordan and Yoder. Whichever one makes it out of the Primary has the edge. GOP GAIN.

KS-04: Incumbent GOP Congressman Todd Tiahrt is running for US Senate. On the GOP side, Printing Company Owner Jim Anderson, Oil Company CEO Wink Hartman, State Senator Dick Kelsey, Manufacturing Executive Mike Pompeo, and State Senator Jean Schodorf are in the running. On the Democratic side, State Representative Raj Goyle and Retiree Robert Tillman are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Nurse Susan Ducey. I expect Kelsey and Goyle to emerge from their Primaries. Kelsey will defeat Goyle 56-44. GOP HOLD.

February 5, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates, Women | , , | Leave a comment

SE on the Wyoming races……

Note.…..SE seems to getting good feedback on this post….so we’re going to re-post his post with updates……

Here’s a rundown of how I think the WY races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal is currently rumored to be considering challenging the term-limit laws in the state. If he does and he succeeds, the Democrats will unify behind Freudenthal. If he does not or does and he fails, potential candidates include Attorney, former State Pipeline Authority Chair, and son of former Governor JJ Hickey Paul Hickey and State Senate Minority Leader Mike Massie. On the GOP side, former US Attorney Matt Mead, State Auditor Rita Meyer, former State Agriculture Director and former State House Speaker Pro Tempore Ron Micheli, and State House Speaker Colin Simpson are in the running. The GOP Primary is a Tossup. If Freudenthal runs again, the race is a TOSSUP. If Freudenthal declines, GOP GAIN.

Secretary of State: Incumbent GOP Secretary of State Max Maxfield is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Maxfield. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

State Auditor: Incumbent GOP State Auditor Rita Meyer is running for Governor. The GOP has unified behind CPA Bruce Brown. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

State Treasurer: Incumbent GOP State Treasurer Joe Meyer is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Meyer. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

State Superintendent of Public Instruction: Incumbent GOP State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jim McBride is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind McBride. The Democrats have no announced candidates, but State Senate Minority Leader Mike Massie is a potential candidate. Whether or not the Democrats run anybody, GOP HOLD.

WY-AL: Incumbent GOP Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Lummis. The Democrats have no announced or potential candidates. GOP HOLD.

Posted By SE-779

February 3, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Polls, Updates | , | 5 Comments

SE on the 2010 Kentucky races……

My Take on the 2010 Kentucky Races

Here’s a rundown of how I think the Kentucky races will go:

US Senate: Incumbent GOP Senator Jim Bunning is retiring. On the GOP side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, Business Executive Bill Johnson, World War II Veteran Gurley Martin, Physician Rand Paul, Jon Scribner, and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson are in the running. On the Democratic side, Physician James Buckmaster, Attorney General Jack Conway, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo, former US Customs Agent Darlene Price, and Farmer Maurice Sweeney are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Convenience Store Operator John Long. I expect Paul and Conway to emerge from their Primaries. I expect Paul to defeat Conway 52-48. GOP HOLD.

KY-01: Incumbent GOP Congressman Ed Whitfield is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Whitfield. The Democrats have unified Auctioneer Charles Hatchett. I expect Whitfield to bury Hatchett 72-28. GOP HOLD.

KY-02: Incumbent GOP Congressman S. Brett Guthrie is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Guthrie. The Democrats have unified behind Home Builder Ed Marksberry. I expect Guthrie to crush Marksberry 70-30. GOP HOLD.

KY-03: Incumbent Democratic Congressman John Yarmuth is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Yarmuth. On the GOP side, Electric Power Plant Worker W. Jerry Durbin, Commercial Real Estate Broker Larry Hausman, Commercial Pilot Todd Lally, Restaurant Franchise Owner Jeff Reetz, and Financial Consultant Brooks Wicker are in the running. I expect Reetz to emerge from the Primary. I expect Yarmuth to prevail 54-46. DEM HOLD.

KY-04: Incumbent GOP Congressman Geoff Davis is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Davis. The Democrats have unified behind Disabled Iraq/Afghan War Veteran & Non-Profit Group Executive John Waltz. I expect Davis to prevail 69-31. GOP HOLD.

KY-05: Incumbent GOP Congressman Hal Rogers is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind Rogers. On the Democratic side, Helicopter Pilot Jim Holbert, Teacher David Holbert, and Attorney Ken Stepp are in the running. I have no idea who will be the Dem nominee, but does it matter? Rogers will crush them like their Third Parties. GOP HOLD.

KY-06: Incumbent Democratic Congressman AB Chandler is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Chandler. On the GOP side, Businessman Perry Barnes, Attorney Andy Barr, John Kemper III, Funeral Director Matt Lockett, George Pendergrass, and retired Businessman Mike Templeman are in the running. I expect Barr to get the nomination, but lose to Chandler 56-44. DEM HOLD.

POSTED BY SE-779

January 31, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Updates | , | Leave a comment

SE on the political races in Maine…….

Here’s a rundown of how I think the ME races will go:

Governor: Incumbent Democratic Governor John Baldacci is term-limited. On the Democratic side, former Biddeford Mayor Donna Dion, State Senate President Libby Mitchell, former Attorney General Steve Rowe, former State Conservation Commissioner Pat McGowan, State Economic/Community Development Commissioner John Richardson, Affordable Housing Company CEO Rosa Scarcelli, and former State Representative Peter Truman are in the running. On the GOP side, Attorney Steve Abbott, former Husson University President Bill Beardsley, Businessman Matt Jacobson, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage, State Senator Peter Mills, Energy Executive Les Otten, Real Estate Developer Bruce Poliquin, and Electrician Marty Vachon are in the running. The Green Party has unified behind former Green Party Chairwoman Lynne Williams. On the Independent side, Investment Adviser Sam Bailey, Christopher Cambron, Curriculum Specialist Beverly Cooper-Pete, Attorney Eliot Cutler, Welder Augustus Edgerton, Businessman Alex Hammer, and Sidney Town Selectman John Whitcomb are in the running. I expect Rowe and Mills to emerge from their respective Primaries. In this climate, I expect Mills to prevail over Rowe 45-39. GOP GAIN.

ME-01: Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Chellie Pingree is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Pingree. The GOP has unified behind Businessman Dean Scontras. Given the current political climate and the fact that Pingree defeated her GOP opponent 54-45 in 2008, this race could become competative, but for now, DEM HOLD.

ME-02: Incumbent Democratic Congressman Michael Michaud is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Michaud. The GOP has unified behind Businessman Jason Levesque. Michaud will bodyslam Levesque 59-41. DEM HOLD.

SE-779

January 28, 2010 Posted by | Government, Media, PoliticalDogs SE posts, Politics, Polls, Updates | , | Leave a comment