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commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Simmon WILL NOT campaign for Linda McMahon in Connecticut……

The man is not happy……

But…..Money makes the world goes round…..

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) — who recently dropped his bid for the Republican Senate nomination in Connecticut — tells National Review Online that he does not think that Linda McMahon (R) can win the race against Richard Blumenthal (D).


Said Simmons: “No, I don’t think so at all.”

And if McMahon asks Simmons for help on the trail, he says he’ll say he is “preoccupied.”

More…..

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May 27, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , | 5 Comments

Daniel…..Missouri Senate: Blunt leads Carnahan for the first time in an Public Policy Polling Survey; The margin is 4 Points….

Hello Dog!

Things have gotten from bad to worse for the Democratic Senate Candidate in Missouri, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D-MO). Carnahan trails Republican Roy Blunt (R-MO) by 4 Points in a Public Policy Polling Survey released today. (That no surprise considering the bad Political Climate Democrats are in)

However it is a VERY BIG SURPRISE that she now only leads little known State Senator Chuck Purgason (R-MO) by only 4 Points. That’s really unexpected. This DOESN’T bode well for her Election Chances come November.

Public Policy Polling Survey

Missouri Senate 2010

U. S. Rep. Representative Roy Blunt (R)  45 %

Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)  41 %
Undecided  13 %

Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)  42 %
State Senator Chuck Purgason (R)  38 %
Undecided  19 %

Job Approval

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  43 %
Disapprove  52 %
Not Sure  4 %

Repeal Health Care

Yes  51 %
No  42 %
Not Sure  8 %

Health Care Bill

Support  37 %
Oppose  54 %
Not Sure  9 %

Major Candidates Websites:

http://www.royblunt.com/
http://www.keepyourchange2010.org/
http://www.robincarnahan.com/

Full Results of the Poll can be found here:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Analysis:

I know “The Dog” has put up a Quickie from an CNN / Opinion Research Corporation Poll that shows Americans won’t back to Repeal Health Care.

Folks that doesn’t mean much.
You have to look into Individual States.
For example here in Missouri as you can see a slim Majority WOULD BACK to repeal the Bill.
That’s why I don’t trust National Polls on this Issue a lot.
Needless to say also that only 37 % are supporting the Bill that passed the House last week.
Obama is also very much UNDERWATER here in a State he lost narrowly.
With those kind of National Numbers it’ll be difficult for Carnahan to win.

Daniel G.

March 30, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 8 Comments

Feingold leads his announced challengers in Wisconsin……

From Rasmussen…..

Wisconsin incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold leads his two best-known announced Republican challengers for the U.S. Senate in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state.

Feingold leads real estate entrepreneur Terrence Wall 47% to 39%. Just six percent (6%) would choose some other candidate given that match-up, while seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Against another potential GOP opponent, businessman Dave Westlake, Feingold currently holds a 47% to 37% lead but again fails to receive 50% support. Six percent (6%) like another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

Any incumbent who attracts less than 50% support at this point in a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable.

Little has changed over the past month in the hypothetical match-up of Feingold and former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson, who has yet to decide if he’s officially running. Thompson holds a 48% to 43% edge over Feingold. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Thompson held nearly the same lead over Feingold in January, 47% to 43%.

Note:……Tommy Thompson is not running at this time…….I still don’t understand why Rasmussen always runs the person ahead in the poll in the second spot….are they upside down over there?

While Rasmussen is at it why don’t they poll Iron Man against Feingold he ain’t running there either………

February 18, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , | 15 Comments

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh will not run for re-election……..

This from the Washington Post’s The Fix.……

Evan Bayh to retire……

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Prior to being in the Senate, Bayh served two terms as governor of the Hoosier State. He also served briefly as Secretary of State.

Update from Merlin.….

Bayh’s Move could prove brilliant:

Here is why:

The Democratic States Central Committee will select their Candidate at a later Date AND if either fmr. DNC Chairman Joe Andrew or 9/11 Commission Member Tim Roemer runs Republicans are SCREWED

The Dog wondered about the timing of this announcement…..

Update#2.………

UPDATE 2:

This isn’t a DONE DEAL.

Bayh has ALREADY a Democratic Primary Opponent:

http://www.tamyraforsenate.com/

Tamyra d’Ippolito

Democrats MUST NOW HOPE that she can’t garner enough signatures by Friday. If she DOES Democrats can’t select a Replacement via the States Central Committee.

To Merlin…..from the Dog…

your scenario will play out…you got it right…..

this is serious now……

UPDATE 3:

Mike Pence (R-IN) is RECONSIDERING. Come On Mike now. Run.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32973.html

Update#4.…..

Hello Dog!

It looks like you’ve your Candidate. According to the Evansville Courier-Press Congressman Brad Ellsworth (D-IN Eigth) is making a Statement this afternoon.

From the Evansville Courier-Press:

Ellsworth is seen by many as the leading candidate. An aide for Ellsworth said the former Vanderburgh County sheriff and two-term House member will comment this afternoon.

One possible scenario could involve Ellsworth running for Bayh’s Senate seat and Democrats choosing Weinzapfel to replace him for the House.

Weinzapfel is the Mayor of Evansville and would likely be the Favourite to hold Ellsworth’s House Seat.

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2010/feb/15/bayh-says-he-wont-seek-re-election/

February 15, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates | , , | 42 Comments

Merlin on Indiana's Senate Race…Evan Bayh…and some Job approval numbers….

Hello Dog!

Bad News are continuing to come for Senate Democrats. Should Republican House Policy Chair Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN 6) announce for Senate he would start the Race in a statistical tie with Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) a new Poll shows.

Rasmussen Survey

Indiana Senate 2010

Rep. Mike Pence (R)  47 %
Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  44 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  7 %

Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  44 %
Former Rep. John Hostettler (R)  41 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  12 %

Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  45 %
State Senator Marlin Stutzman (R)  33 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  16 %

Job Approvals

President Obama

Approve  43 %
Disapprove  56 %

Governor Mitch Daniels (R)

Approve  70 %
Disapprove  29 %

Merlin’s Take:

Man, this is really striking. How worse have things gotten for Senator Evan Bayh.  He can’t even break 45 % against lesser known Opponents like Stutzman and Hostettler. That shows you in how bad shape he is. Unfortunately Rasmussen doesn’t give us Job Approvals for Bayh but my guess is that his Numbers are in the low 50’s and maybe even below that.

As someone who supports Republican Candidates I’d say “Run Mike Run”

Merlin

Ok…the Dog is a little confused with Merlin working at warp speed and all today…..somewhere today the Dog made the comment that this race with Bayh is connected to the Healthcare Bill and that when the Bill is passed, and the issue dies down Bayh will be in better shape…..

January 25, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , | 6 Comments

Merlin on Indiana’s Senate Race…Evan Bayh…and some Job approval numbers….

Hello Dog!

Bad News are continuing to come for Senate Democrats. Should Republican House Policy Chair Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN 6) announce for Senate he would start the Race in a statistical tie with Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) a new Poll shows.

Rasmussen Survey

Indiana Senate 2010

Rep. Mike Pence (R)  47 %
Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  44 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  7 %

Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  44 %
Former Rep. John Hostettler (R)  41 %
Others  3 %
Undecided  12 %

Incumbent Senator Evan Bayh (D)  45 %
State Senator Marlin Stutzman (R)  33 %
Others  5 %
Undecided  16 %

Job Approvals

President Obama

Approve  43 %
Disapprove  56 %

Governor Mitch Daniels (R)

Approve  70 %
Disapprove  29 %

Merlin’s Take:

Man, this is really striking. How worse have things gotten for Senator Evan Bayh.  He can’t even break 45 % against lesser known Opponents like Stutzman and Hostettler. That shows you in how bad shape he is. Unfortunately Rasmussen doesn’t give us Job Approvals for Bayh but my guess is that his Numbers are in the low 50’s and maybe even below that.

As someone who supports Republican Candidates I’d say “Run Mike Run”

Merlin

Ok…the Dog is a little confused with Merlin working at warp speed and all today…..somewhere today the Dog made the comment that this race with Bayh is connected to the Healthcare Bill and that when the Bill is passed, and the issue dies down Bayh will be in better shape…..

January 25, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , | 6 Comments

Merlin with another Quickie…..on the race in Arkansas…..

Hi Dog!

Things are really heating up in Arkansas.

Judging from a New York Times piece…..Rep. John Boozman (R-AR 3) seems ready to challenge Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln.

Quote from Rep. Boozman……

Representative John Boozman, Republican of Arkansas, said the results in Massachusetts had pushed him toward challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, a vulnerable Democrat. “If the people of Massachusetts are upset, you can imagine how the people of Arkansas feel,” Mr. Boozman said in a telephone interview Sunday night.

Merlin

January 24, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , | 12 Comments

Merlin with an Election Update for Arkansas…….Numerous Updates below!

Hello Dog!

Well, the real Pollsters such as Maxon-Dixon finally starting to poll the competitive Senate Races this year. Congrats to them getting of the huck and polling REAL Races. Usually I don’t take swipes at Pollster but I will do now with Rasmussen. Scott, please stop polling at a likely Voter Model for General Election Match-Ups at least until the Summer. It doesn’t give you credit doing so right now.

Mason-Dixon / Arkansas News Bureau Survey

Arkansas Senate 2010

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln  52 %
Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter  34 %
Undecided  12 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln  63 %
State Senate President Bob Johnson  22 %
Undecided  15 %

Dates: Jan. 18-20 / 303 Likely Primary Voters / MOE 6.0 Percentage Points. The Primary is May 18th. Strangely M/D didn’t poll a GOP Primary but that may well come out tomorrow.

General Election

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  43 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  39 %
Undecided  18 %

2004 Senate Candidate Jim Holt (R)  43 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  37 %
Undecided  20 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  40 %
Businessman Curtis Coleman (R)  39 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  41 %
Retired Army Officer Conrad Reynolds (R)  38 %
Undecided  21 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  43 %
State Senator Kim Hendren (R)  38 %
Undecided  19 %

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln (D)  41 %
Businessman Tom Cox (R)  38 %
Undecided  21 %

Dates: Jan. 18-20 / 625 Registered Voters / MOE 4.0 Percentage Points

Full Results here:

http://arkansasnews.com/2010/01/22/poll-shows-lincoln-neck-and-neck-with-gop-challengers/

Merlin’s Take:

Lincoln is in a dire Position no question about it. Merlin hasn’t shifted the Race out of “Toss-Up” into “Lean Republican” mainly because the Republicans haven’t a unified Candidate so far.

To complicate things for Lincoln Merlin getting word of that the lone Republican is the Arkansas Congressional Delegation John Boozman looking at the Race. Boozman who has a very high reputation in Arkansas GOP Circles would likely start the GOP Primary as Frontrunner.

Merlin

Update:.…a hour after this post went up….Merlin got this…..

HUGE News for the GOP in Arkansas. Hotline On Call is just reporting that Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) is making Senate Calls.

Some Candidates in the Race already have assured Boozman that they’ll drop out in favor of him.

Boozman is expecting a Call from NRSC Chair John Cornyn (R-TX) and he’ll meet with Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Monday morning.

From my perspective it looks like this is a done Deal.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/01/boozman_making.php

To put this in another Perspective:

Boozman is No. 2 in Popularity in Arkansas in GOP Circles just behind Mike Huckabee.

Lincoln is GONE with his pending Entry. She is not gonna beat Boozman for sure. ( Ok we will see….it’s a bit early )

You can see all comments on this post here:
http://politicaldog101.com/2010/01/22/merlin-with-an-election-update-for-arkansas/#comments

Another Update:……

With Boozman likely IN it’s very unlikely that Halter is challenging Lincoln in the Primary.

The only Democrat who could likely beat Boozman is current Governor Mike Beebe and he just announced at the beginning of the week he’s seeking Reelection.

The Democrats HAVE A MASSIVE Headache now.  (one Nevers knows…do they?….but this is NOT good news for the Dem’s)

Another Update……

Any Democrat who thinks that they can get Boozman’s House District should be thinking twice before entering.

According to Cook Arkansas 3 has a PVI R + 13 which means the District is 13 times more Republican than the Nation.

Another, Another Update:…..
It’s getting funny in Arkansas. Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) is now making calls gauging support for a Congressional Run in the 3rd District which Boozman would vacate when he runs for Senate.

Hutchinson ran for Governor in 2006 losing to current Governor Mike Beebe (D-AR)

http://www.talkbusiness.net/Weblogs/WeblogItemDetail.aspx?WebLogItemID=ea9dd535-43b4-4e89-bc39-18c052f8b613&WeblogID=cc24fc6b-d9a7-4647-b991-53b1cec2eec4

IF Hutchinson runs…. will this mean the Democratic headache goes away Merlin?……he, he, he

January 22, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , | 12 Comments

Merlin on the California Senate Race….This time the ‘Field’ Poll…..

Hello and morning Dog!

California’s best known Pollster “The Field Poll” has a new Survey out in the Golden State. Field contradicts Rasmussen and puts Senator Barbara Boxer ahead by double digits of all 3 GOP Challengers. Newly Entrant fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (R) surprisingly leads the GOP Primary. Campbell also runs strongest in the General Election Head-to-Heads.

Field Poll January 2010

California Senate 2010

Republican Primary

fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell  30 %
fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina  25 %
Assemblyman Chuck DeVore  6 %
Undecided  39 %

Note:

Right now DeVore doesn’t seem to be a Factor in this Primary Race. The CA Primary will be held in June.

General Election

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  48 %
fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (R)  38 %
Undecided  14 %

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  50 %
fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R)  35 %
Undecided  15 %

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  51 %
Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R)  34 5
Undecided  15 %

Full Results can be found at http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers.  Then you’ve to click on latest Poll.

Note:

We’re probably getting new Results for the Open Governor Race tomorrow.

Merlin

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 2 Comments

Merlin on the California Senate Race….This time the 'Field' Poll…..

Hello and morning Dog!

California’s best known Pollster “The Field Poll” has a new Survey out in the Golden State. Field contradicts Rasmussen and puts Senator Barbara Boxer ahead by double digits of all 3 GOP Challengers. Newly Entrant fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (R) surprisingly leads the GOP Primary. Campbell also runs strongest in the General Election Head-to-Heads.

Field Poll January 2010

California Senate 2010

Republican Primary

fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell  30 %
fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina  25 %
Assemblyman Chuck DeVore  6 %
Undecided  39 %

Note:

Right now DeVore doesn’t seem to be a Factor in this Primary Race. The CA Primary will be held in June.

General Election

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  48 %
fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell (R)  38 %
Undecided  14 %

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  50 %
fmr. HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R)  35 %
Undecided  15 %

Incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D)  51 %
Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R)  34 5
Undecided  15 %

Full Results can be found at http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers.  Then you’ve to click on latest Poll.

Note:

We’re probably getting new Results for the Open Governor Race tomorrow.

Merlin

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | 2 Comments