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Larry Sabado agrees with the Dog…..The House is likeley to still have a Democratic majority next January….

I have said this to Daniel all along……The Democratic loses in the House will NOT rise above 30ish….

Nancy Pelosi will keep her job as Speaker of the House come January…..

Apparently….Larry Sabado’s Crystal Ball agree’s with the Dog….

Like many beleaguered sports fans, as the calendar turned to 2010, Republicans across the country were conjuring up the same thought: “This is the year!” After disastrous House elections in 2006 and 2008, Republicans dropped from their high-water mark of 232 House seats—their largest total since 1949—to just 178—their lowest total in a decade and a half. This precipitous decline brought considerable frustration to the new minority party. 2010 appeared to offer the chance for historic rebirth—and in many ways it still does.

The real question of this midterm election is not whether a Republican tide is imminent, but how high it will be. From 1938 onwards, in only two of eighteen midterm elections (1998 and 2002) has the party shut out of the White House failed to gain House seats. With so many seats to defend, and dozens of them in Republican-leaning districts, Democrats have obvious, substantial disadvantages this year. However, the sizeable Democratic majority in Congress is not only a sign of opportunity for the GOP but a bulwark for Democrats. Even after winning a House special election in Hawaii’s 1st District to pick up a new seat last week, Republicans still need a net gain of 39 seats this November to retake the House majority. And the Hawaii seat is shaky indeed for the GOP.

Unlike some analysts, we have never once predicted that Republicans would win enough new House seats to take control of the chamber. They may well do so in November due to the factors with which we’re all familiar (a bad economy, sagging presidential popularity, public concern over spending and debt, and so on). But in our eyes, there has been and still is insufficient data to suggest an impending turnover……

More…..

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May 27, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Media, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Projections, Updates | , , | 17 Comments

Daniel…..The Midterms 2010: “A Path to a Republican House Majority”

Hello Dog Folks!

Welcome to my second Installment “The Midterms 2010 A Path to a Republican House Majority”

If you enjoyed my “First Installment” rougly a week ago you knew that we talked about Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia and South Carolina.

Today it gets more interesting as I will look at 2 “Bellwether States”: Ohio and Pennsylvania.

As many as 10 Democratic held House District might be in play in these two States.

Let’s start with the Buckeye State. Democrats were very successful here in 2006 & 2008 BUT all good things must come to an End.

Democratic held Districts who could change Hands come November:

Ohio – 1 (Driehaus)

Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) is back for a Rematch against Freshman Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-OH). Many believed including MYSELF that Driehaus won MAINLY in 2008 because of the High African American Turnout in the Cincinnati suburban Area. With Obama not on the Ballot this year this will be a Prime Pick-Up Opportunity for Republicans. Also Driehaus VOTED for the Health Care Reform Bill which passed the House in March. The Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for the District is D + 1

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover.

Ohio – 15 (Kilroy)

Republican Steve Stivers (R-OH) is back for a Rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH). Kilroy won the 2008 Race only by 2.300 Votes thanks to Barack Obama winning Franklin County and the City of Columbus by a 2 to 1 margin over John McCain. Again Obama isn’t on the Ballot this year AND to make matters worse for her she VOTED FOR the Health Care Reform Bill, Even more worrisome for her: Will those young Voters and College Students from the Ohio State University who propelled Obama to Victory turn out again this year? That’s highly doubtful. The PVI of this District is D + 1

Therefore My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover.

Ohio – 16 (Boccieri)

Democratic Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) VOTED FOR the Health Care Reform Bill BUT sits in a slight Republican District. ENOUGH SAID. The PVI of this District is R + 4.  His Opponent in November will likely be Former Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci (R-OH).

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Ohio – 18 (Space)

Democratic U. S. Rep. Zachary “Zach” Space (D-OH) defeated scandal-plagued Congressman Bob Ney (R-OH) in the 2006 Democratic Wave. He won Re-Election in 2008 mainly because Republicans couldn’t find a credible Candidate here. This year might be different as the NRCC found a good Candidate in State Senator Bob Gibbs (R-OH). Space VOTED AGAINST the Health Care Reform Bill. Nonetheless the District is still Republican with a PVI R + 7.

My Call today: Toss-Up

Now to one District who is still a longshot I think BUT if we’ve a really big Wave could also change Hands:

Ohio – 13 (Sutton)

Auto Dealer Tom Ganley (R-OH) ran against Robert “Rob” Portman (R-OH) for the U. S. Senate Nomination but dropped out just a few Days before the Filling Deadline in February to run against Longterm U. S. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-OH). Ganley can spend Millions on this Race. Sutton also VOTED FOR the Health Care Reform Bill. However this District has a slight Democratic PVI D + 5.

Therefore my Call today: Leans Democratic Retention

Now let’s go to the Keystone State (Pennsylvania) where things are looking EVEN more ominous for the Democrats. I’m STILL LAUGHING heavily on “The Dog’s ” Assumption that Pennsylvania is a Democratic Lean State. It isn’t as Gore and Kerry won PA BARELY in 2000 & 2008. True Democrats captured a Senate Seat in 2006 and a few House Seats in the last two Election Cycle. Like Colorado for example I think Democrats have hit the High Water Mark here and it can only go Downhill for them here.

Democratic Held Districts who could change Hands come November:

Pennsylvania – 3 (Dahlkemper)

Freshwoman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) defeated longterm Rep. Phil English (R-PA) 2008 in this Republican leaning District. Dahlkemper was one of the folks of the “Stupak” Coalition. Nevertheless she still VOTED for the Health Care Reform Bill and with Corbett & Toomey at the top of the Ticket she’s likely to lose in November. This District has a PVI of R + 3

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 4 (Altmire)

Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) won Re-Election to his second Term with 56 % of the Vote in 2008 defeating his 2006 Foe Melissa Hart (R-PA) again. Altmire VOTED AGAINST Health Care in March creating HUGE Backslash from the PA AFL-CIO who were threatening him with a Primary Challenge. That hasn’t happened. Still I doubt the Unions will support him again. After all he also lives in a Conservative leaning District which has a PVI R + 6.

My Call today: Toss-Up

Pennsylvania – 7 (Open, Sestak running for Senate)

Sestak’s ill advised Decision to give up a somewhat SAFE House District (He won with 60 % in 2008) to run against Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) will cost Democrats DEARLY. Democrats have rallied behind State Representative Brian Lentz (D-PA). Lentz run briefly for that District in 2006 before the DCCC under the Leadership of then Head Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) were able to recruit Sestak. To make matters difficult for Lentz and the DCCC their Counterpart NRCC have recruited a Top-Tier Challenger in former U. S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R-PA) who ran briefly for the Senate Nomination against Toomey. This District has a PVI D + 3 BUT with Meehan in Lentz has an Uphill Climb here.

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 8 (Patrick Murphy)

Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) who lost to Murphy in the 2006 Elections is back for a Rematch. Murphy VOTED FOR Health Care. The District has a slight Democratic lean with a PVI D + 2

My Call today: Toss-Up

Pennsylvania – 10 (Carney)

After not finding a credible Challenger for Carney in 2008 Republicans are back to play for the Seat. Carney’s likeliest Opponent in November will be former U. S. Attorney Tom Marino (R-OH). Carney VOTED FOR Health Care which could deeply harm him in November in this PVI R + 8 District.

Therefore my Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 11 (Kanjorski)

EVEN in the big blue year of 2008 U. S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) BARELY escaped with 52 % of the Vote against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R-PA). Kanjorski also VOTED FOR Health Care and is also scandal-plagued. This District has a PVI D + 2 BUT Barletta is a Top-Notch Candidate.

Therefore my Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 12 (Open, Murtha died February 8th)

With the Special Election on May 18th the same Day as the State Primary I expect Democrat Mark Critz (D-PA) to prevail over Republican Tim Burns (R-PA). However with the PVI R + 1 Republicans have a good Chance to snatch the Seat away from Democrats come November when Corbett & Toomey are at the Top of the Ticket.

My Call today: Lean Democratic Retention for the May 18th Special Election; Lean Republican Takeover for November

As you can see nearly half of the States Democratic Congressional Delegation could chance Hands this. year.

If we win 8-10 Seats this November in Ohio & Pennsylvania WE WILL be winning THE HOUSE folks.

Next week: I’ll be looking at Michigan & Florida as well as into some Northeastern Districts.

Daniel G.

April 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Women | , , | 11 Comments

Daniel…..The Midterms 2010: "A Path to a Republican House Majority"

Hello Dog Folks!

Welcome to my second Installment “The Midterms 2010 A Path to a Republican House Majority”

If you enjoyed my “First Installment” rougly a week ago you knew that we talked about Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia and South Carolina.

Today it gets more interesting as I will look at 2 “Bellwether States”: Ohio and Pennsylvania.

As many as 10 Democratic held House District might be in play in these two States.

Let’s start with the Buckeye State. Democrats were very successful here in 2006 & 2008 BUT all good things must come to an End.

Democratic held Districts who could change Hands come November:

Ohio – 1 (Driehaus)

Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) is back for a Rematch against Freshman Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-OH). Many believed including MYSELF that Driehaus won MAINLY in 2008 because of the High African American Turnout in the Cincinnati suburban Area. With Obama not on the Ballot this year this will be a Prime Pick-Up Opportunity for Republicans. Also Driehaus VOTED for the Health Care Reform Bill which passed the House in March. The Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for the District is D + 1

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover.

Ohio – 15 (Kilroy)

Republican Steve Stivers (R-OH) is back for a Rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH). Kilroy won the 2008 Race only by 2.300 Votes thanks to Barack Obama winning Franklin County and the City of Columbus by a 2 to 1 margin over John McCain. Again Obama isn’t on the Ballot this year AND to make matters worse for her she VOTED FOR the Health Care Reform Bill, Even more worrisome for her: Will those young Voters and College Students from the Ohio State University who propelled Obama to Victory turn out again this year? That’s highly doubtful. The PVI of this District is D + 1

Therefore My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover.

Ohio – 16 (Boccieri)

Democratic Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) VOTED FOR the Health Care Reform Bill BUT sits in a slight Republican District. ENOUGH SAID. The PVI of this District is R + 4.  His Opponent in November will likely be Former Wadsworth Mayor Jim Renacci (R-OH).

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Ohio – 18 (Space)

Democratic U. S. Rep. Zachary “Zach” Space (D-OH) defeated scandal-plagued Congressman Bob Ney (R-OH) in the 2006 Democratic Wave. He won Re-Election in 2008 mainly because Republicans couldn’t find a credible Candidate here. This year might be different as the NRCC found a good Candidate in State Senator Bob Gibbs (R-OH). Space VOTED AGAINST the Health Care Reform Bill. Nonetheless the District is still Republican with a PVI R + 7.

My Call today: Toss-Up

Now to one District who is still a longshot I think BUT if we’ve a really big Wave could also change Hands:

Ohio – 13 (Sutton)

Auto Dealer Tom Ganley (R-OH) ran against Robert “Rob” Portman (R-OH) for the U. S. Senate Nomination but dropped out just a few Days before the Filling Deadline in February to run against Longterm U. S. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-OH). Ganley can spend Millions on this Race. Sutton also VOTED FOR the Health Care Reform Bill. However this District has a slight Democratic PVI D + 5.

Therefore my Call today: Leans Democratic Retention

Now let’s go to the Keystone State (Pennsylvania) where things are looking EVEN more ominous for the Democrats. I’m STILL LAUGHING heavily on “The Dog’s ” Assumption that Pennsylvania is a Democratic Lean State. It isn’t as Gore and Kerry won PA BARELY in 2000 & 2008. True Democrats captured a Senate Seat in 2006 and a few House Seats in the last two Election Cycle. Like Colorado for example I think Democrats have hit the High Water Mark here and it can only go Downhill for them here.

Democratic Held Districts who could change Hands come November:

Pennsylvania – 3 (Dahlkemper)

Freshwoman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) defeated longterm Rep. Phil English (R-PA) 2008 in this Republican leaning District. Dahlkemper was one of the folks of the “Stupak” Coalition. Nevertheless she still VOTED for the Health Care Reform Bill and with Corbett & Toomey at the top of the Ticket she’s likely to lose in November. This District has a PVI of R + 3

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 4 (Altmire)

Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) won Re-Election to his second Term with 56 % of the Vote in 2008 defeating his 2006 Foe Melissa Hart (R-PA) again. Altmire VOTED AGAINST Health Care in March creating HUGE Backslash from the PA AFL-CIO who were threatening him with a Primary Challenge. That hasn’t happened. Still I doubt the Unions will support him again. After all he also lives in a Conservative leaning District which has a PVI R + 6.

My Call today: Toss-Up

Pennsylvania – 7 (Open, Sestak running for Senate)

Sestak’s ill advised Decision to give up a somewhat SAFE House District (He won with 60 % in 2008) to run against Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) will cost Democrats DEARLY. Democrats have rallied behind State Representative Brian Lentz (D-PA). Lentz run briefly for that District in 2006 before the DCCC under the Leadership of then Head Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) were able to recruit Sestak. To make matters difficult for Lentz and the DCCC their Counterpart NRCC have recruited a Top-Tier Challenger in former U. S. Attorney Pat Meehan (R-PA) who ran briefly for the Senate Nomination against Toomey. This District has a PVI D + 3 BUT with Meehan in Lentz has an Uphill Climb here.

My Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 8 (Patrick Murphy)

Former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) who lost to Murphy in the 2006 Elections is back for a Rematch. Murphy VOTED FOR Health Care. The District has a slight Democratic lean with a PVI D + 2

My Call today: Toss-Up

Pennsylvania – 10 (Carney)

After not finding a credible Challenger for Carney in 2008 Republicans are back to play for the Seat. Carney’s likeliest Opponent in November will be former U. S. Attorney Tom Marino (R-OH). Carney VOTED FOR Health Care which could deeply harm him in November in this PVI R + 8 District.

Therefore my Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 11 (Kanjorski)

EVEN in the big blue year of 2008 U. S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) BARELY escaped with 52 % of the Vote against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R-PA). Kanjorski also VOTED FOR Health Care and is also scandal-plagued. This District has a PVI D + 2 BUT Barletta is a Top-Notch Candidate.

Therefore my Call today: Leans Republican Takeover

Pennsylvania – 12 (Open, Murtha died February 8th)

With the Special Election on May 18th the same Day as the State Primary I expect Democrat Mark Critz (D-PA) to prevail over Republican Tim Burns (R-PA). However with the PVI R + 1 Republicans have a good Chance to snatch the Seat away from Democrats come November when Corbett & Toomey are at the Top of the Ticket.

My Call today: Lean Democratic Retention for the May 18th Special Election; Lean Republican Takeover for November

As you can see nearly half of the States Democratic Congressional Delegation could chance Hands this. year.

If we win 8-10 Seats this November in Ohio & Pennsylvania WE WILL be winning THE HOUSE folks.

Next week: I’ll be looking at Michigan & Florida as well as into some Northeastern Districts.

Daniel G.

April 11, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Polls, Women | , , | 11 Comments