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commentary on Politics and a little bit of everything else

Kucinich climbs on board for the Healthcare Bill……

[ Rep. Dennis Kucinich walks away from Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland Monday. He accompanied President Obama to Strongsville, Ohio, where he spoke about healthcare reform. ]

Nothing like a ride on Air Force One to change your mind, huh?

Fineman: Kucinich a Yes on Healthcare Reform

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 08:53:27 PM EDT

Via National Review online editor John McCormack and The Hill reporter Jordan Fabian, Howard Fineman apparently reported tonight that Ohio Democratic Congressman Dennis Kucinich, previously a no on healthcare reform, will vote aye. If this report pans out — and we should know for certain by tomorrow morning, when Kucinich is slated to hold a press conference — the Democrats would have their first announced no-to-yes switcher on healthcare reform. The goal of 216 is looking increasingly achievable for Nancy Pelosi.

The Dog thought he saw the aircraft wink……he, he, he

March 17, 2010 Posted by | Aircraft, Breaking News, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Other Things, Politics, Updates | , , , , | 4 Comments

MyDD and Charlie Cook discuss his call on the Democrats chances in 2010…..

MyDD’s Jonathan Singer exchanged thoughts with Charlie Cook on his call that Democrats could lose up to 30 seats in the House in November’s mid-term elections……

From Singer……

The past few weeks and months I have been writing quite a bit about my view, contrary to those held by many inside the Beltway and Charlie Cook specifically, that the Democrats’ control of the United States House of Representatives is all but lost at present. Don’t get me wrong, I am not so obtuse to believe that the political environment favors the Democrats. But I just don’t buy the notion that the Republicans are on the verge of retaking the House in the upcoming midterm elections.

Yesterday I wrote a post noting internal Democratic polling showing one of the red state Democratic incumbents the Cook Political Report currently rates in the “tossup” category leading by margins well in excess of 20 points against named challengers. “If the Republicans can’t even be competitive in an R+16 district featuring a freshman Democrat in a race Cook now labels as ‘a tossup,'” I asked, “how, exactly, are they supposed to win back the 40 seats they need to regain a majority in the chamber?”

Charlie has been kind enough to respond with four comments on my post. I have included the full text of each comment below the fold, for those interested. Here are a few grafs culled from these comments that seem to be representative.

Jonathan, I think what this poll suggests is that Democrats in tough districts who have opposed the Democratic Congressional leadership and the President on just about every important matter, have a decent chance of surviving.

My job, having started the Cook Political Report in 1984, is to call them as I see them. We saw a big wave coming in 1994 but underestimated it then. In 2006 we saw one and nailed it. We saw signs of problems and began writing and talking about it last summer and see little sign that we are wrong. If more Democrats had the cover that Bright had, maybe we would be.

Yes, we have been writing “Dems in trouble” for about eight months now, but it isn’t much different from when we were writing that Republicans were in trouble during the 2006 and 2008 cycles. And Republicans were in fact in trouble. Our job is to watch races individually and look for trends. If the partisans for the side on the short end of the trends don’t like it, they typically attack the messenger. you can be sure that Republicans weren’t happy with what we were writing in the months leading up to the 2006 election, but we were right.

All of the points that Charlie makes are fair…….

What I would like to note, however, is that while I don’t dispute the particular points that Charlie is making, I still don’t buy his overall thesis. This isn’t the first time that the two of us haven’t seen eye-to-eye. The last time he came on the site to comment on one of my posts, back in December 2007, it was to defendthe projection made by his publication that the Democrats would pick up between two and eight seats in the House in the 2008 election — a projection I believed to be too dour towards the Democrats, about whom I wrote, “I’d be surprised if [they] didn’t net a pick up of at least 10-15 seats in the House next fall.” As it turned out, the Democrats netted a 21-seat pickup in the House that fall. In May 2006, hecommented similarly, downplaying my reading of his House race analysis as a major shift towards the Democrats (while, in fairness, also saying “one could reasonably say that the House is close to 50-50, perhaps a bit better for Democrats”). Earlier that year he stopped by MyDD to comment on a post I wrote questioning whether the Democrats would necessarily be worse off in the event that GOP Congressman Bob Ney retired instead of running for reelection. Cook wrote, “If you are a Democrat, you need to really hope that Bob Ney does NOT retire.” In the end, Ney did retire, but the Democratic nominee, Zack Space, won by a 24-point margin nonetheless.

For the entire piece.……

And the Dog also believes that Cook’s numbers are too high…...

March 3, 2010 Posted by | Counterpoints, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Polls, Updates | , , , , , | 10 Comments

From Daniel G……PPP polls the 3 New Mexico Congressional Districts: Heinrich & Lujan are up, Teague trails Pearce by 2

Hi Dog!

We’re finally starting to get some Congressional Polls out for this years Midterm Elections. Public Policy Polling who released a New Mexico Governor Poll yesterday tested all 3 Congressional Democrats against Republican Opposition.

Public Policy Polling Survey

New Mexico 1st Congressional District

[Heinrich and Barela ]

U. S. Rep. Martin Heinrich (D)  45 %
Fomer NM GOP Party Vice-Chair Jon Barela (R)  36 %
Undecided  19 %

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  47 %
Disapprove  47 %
Not Sure  6 %

U. S. Rep. Martin Heinrich (D)

Approve  40 %
Disapprove  38 %
Not Sure  23 %

New Mexico 2nd Congressional District

[ Pearce and Teague ]

Former U. S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R)  43 %
U. S. Rep. Harry Teague (D)  41 %
Undecided  16 %

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  44 %
Disapprove  49 %
Not Sure  7 %

U. S. Rep. Harry Teague (D)

Approve  41 %
Disapprove  36 %
Not Sure  22 %

New Mexico 3rd Congressional District

U. S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D)  40 %
Iraq War Veteran Adam Kokesh (R)  32 %
Undecided  28 %

U. S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D)  42 %
Businessman Tom Mullins (R)  36 %
Undecided  22 %

Job Approvals

President Barack Obama (D)

Approve  45 %
Disapprove  47 %
Not Sure  8 %

U. S. Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D)

Approve  31 %
Disapprove  40 %
Not Sure  29 %

Full Results at http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com

NM 1 & NM 2 could become highly competitive Districts this Election Cyle. NM 3 leans likely too much to the Democrats to make it competitive.

Daniel G.

February 25, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | , , , , | Leave a comment

Are the GOP plans to make gains in the House dashed by retirements?

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (Fla.) is the latest Republican to announce retirement from the House. The GOP has to defend 18 open seats this fall, and Democrats have 13 to protect.

With the three latest lawmakers choosing not to seek reelection in November, Republicans will have to defend 18 open seats and Democrats 14.

The raw numbers contradict the conventional wisdom that Democrats would head for the sidelines after GOP Sen. Scott Brown’s special election victory Jan. 19 in Massachusetts.

GOP strategists are brushing aside the retirement gap, saying that many of their House members see an improving political environment and are jumping ship to run for statewide office, and that other retirements are occuring in mostly conservative terrain that will be easy to defend. Democrats counter that the GOP retirements are a sign that most rank-and-file Republicans do not believe they will recapture the majority anytime soon.

National Republican Congressional Committee ChairmanPete Sessions (Tex.) said that “not all retirements are created equal,” adding that Democratic retirements are coming in far less friendly territory for the majority. “The fact of the matter is Democrats in swing districts are retiring because they know what November has in store for them,” Sessions said.

“The fact that you have 10 percent of House Republicans retiring suggests they don’t believe their own hype about taking back the House,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “If that was a realistic prospect, people would be running for office, not from it.”

The Dog sniffed this out a long time ago……What took the Washington Post so long figure this out?

February 12, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Counterpoints, Fiction, Government, Media, Men, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, Updates, Women | , , | 6 Comments