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Daniel on tomorrows Jobs Report…..


Hello Dog and good evening!

Tomorrow the Monthly Jobs Report will come out and could lift Obama. WH hoping for a good Report POLITICO reports:


Daniel G.

Daniel…this teaser from the Wall Street Journal….

Jobs Picture Clouded by Long-Term Unemployed

New jobs numbers will be released Friday morning, and they are expected to show, at last, some significant creation of new jobs. A cheer will go up at the White House at this sign that the long climb out of the recession’s unemployment hole may have begun.

But any cheering will be tempered by nagging concern over an insidious problem lurking within the numbers: the startling number of Americans who have fallen into the ranks of not just the unemployed, but the long-term unemployed.

The numbers of long-term unemployed—defined as those unable to find a job for six months or …


April 1, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Projections, The Economy, Updates, Women | , , | Leave a comment

Census hiring will bring a temporary spike downward in the unemployment numbers…

Yes it will…..

……the United States Governmenet…….

……through the US Census Bureau will hire about 750,000 people to count the 130 million people or so people in this country….

But it will be for about three to four months…….

The U.S. Census Bureau expects to add up to 750,000 workers to its payroll by May, a hiring binge that could knock the unemployment rate down by as much as a half-point.

The once-a-decade census is coming at the best possible time for President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, who have taken political lumps for more than a year over a jobless rate that stands at 9.7 percent.

Some think the administration will get good news as soon as the next monthly labor report, which will be released the first Friday in April.

“This is the best-timed census you could ever dream of,” said Heidi Shierholz, who tracks the labor market at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. She believes the March unemployment report will show the economy added jobs instead of subtracting them.

If it happens, it will be only the second positive-numbers jobs report in more than a year. But in this case, it could lead to further positive job numbers in the months ahead.

Census officials warn that politicians shouldn’t get too excited.

Hires for the 2010 census are temporary and part-time; the average employee works 19 hours a week for six weeks, according to Wendy Button, chief of the decennial recruiting branch of the Census Bureau.

Almost all of those hired will be doing “non-response follow-up work” that involves going door to door to collect information from people who did not return their census forms.

How long employees are on the payroll depends on how long it takes to collect the information, but the bureau expects its payroll to peak in May and to begin winding down in June.

That means hundreds of thousands of people who find work through the census will need to find new jobs later this summer.

Oh, well!??

March 9, 2010 Posted by | Blogs, Breaking News, Government, Media, Men, Other Things, The Economy, Updates, Women | , | Leave a comment

Unemployment holds at 9.7%……which is progress considering the weather…….

Daniel G here was about correct on these numbers…he guessed a hold or a slight uptic by a tenth….he’s still got it sometimes….

And this is good news… considering the storms and snow….but the number only went up about 36,000…..which isn’t pretty…but a heck of a lot better than last years six digit loses…….

Here’s the information….

The American economy lost fewer jobs than expected last month and the unemployment rate remained steady at 9.7 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday, bolstering hopes that a still-tenuous recovery may be starting to gain momentum.

The government’s monthly snapshot of the job market found that another 36,000 jobs disappeared in February — hardly cause for a celebration.

Yet compared to the monthly losses of more than 650,000 jobs a year ago, and against a backdrop of recent news that increased the possibility of a slide back into recession, most economists construed the report as a sign of improvement.

“It’s strikingly good,” said Dean Baker, a director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, who has been notably skeptical of signs of recovery in recent months. “It’s much better than it had been looking.”

Some economists suggested that the report would look even better were it not for heavy snowstorms that blanketed major cities in February, keeping would-be job seekers at home. Most experts now expect losses in the job market will give way to gains during the spring, as still cautious American employers edge gingerly back toward hiring.

“We’re still losing jobs in the economy, but it’s down to a trickle,” said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. “We’re finally going to reach the turning point where we go from job losses to job gains.”


March 5, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Other Things, PoliticalDog Calls, Politics, The Economy, Updates | | 2 Comments

The Unemployment rate stays flat………..

The Labor Department announced what a few us already knew……that empolyers did not hire a lot of Holiday help and tha whole sale rehiring of employees is still a bit away…..employers are jittery and are not going to spend to hire until things get measurably better……and the banks are still being tight-fisted with credit……preay the FED doesn’t move interest rates up…because that would just about sink the ship again……

The unemployment rates remains at 10%…….

A jobs bill is not out of the question for this spring people……..

Note:…..there was a loss of 85,000 jobs in December…. not an expected gain…..

January 8, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, Politics, The Economy, Updates | , | 2 Comments

Merlin on the unemployment….things should be getting better……..

After getting on his case……our resident Merlin has looked into his crystal ball and produced some 411 on the unemployment picture out there…….His call is a good thing for the current administration and the country……thank you Merlin!…..

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) — The worst U.S. employment slump in the post-World War II era may have almost ended in December, signaling the recovery will not be jobless much longer, economists said before reports this week.

Payrolls probably fell by 1,000 workers last month, the smallest drop since the recession began two years ago, according to the median of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Jan. 8 Labor Department report. The unemployment rate may have climbed to 10.1 percent from 10 percent.

Stimulus-driven gains in global demand mean American companies may need to start boosting payrolls in 2010 after eliminating 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Manufacturers are leading the rebound in growth as a pickup in orders and rising exports, combined with a record reduction in inventories, spurs production.

“Businesses are starting to come out of their shells,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “We have turned the corner convincingly and have started on a path toward growth.”

The declines in payrolls the last two years have been the biggest as a percentage of all jobs since 1944-45.

A 10.1 percent reading in December would put the average jobless rate last year at 9.3 percent. The increase from 5.8 percent in 2008 would mark the biggest annual surge in records going back to 1940.

Economists anticipate the jobless rate will exceed 10 percent through the first half of this year, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed last month..

Government Measures

President Barack Obama last month proposed additional spending on the nation’s transportation system, tax credits to spur hiring by small businesses and incentives to make homes more energy efficient in a second round of efforts to cut the jobless rate.

Lawrence Summers, the White House chief economic adviser, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview on Dec. 15 that the prospect of a return to job growth is “an important achievement.”

The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the first gain in more than a year. The median projection of economists surveyed in December anticipated growth of 3 percent in the last three months of 2009. Since the survey, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse have revised estimates to more than 4 percent.

Staffing at temporary employment agencies jumped the most in five years in November, which some economists and executives view as a sign total payroll growth is imminent.

Temporary Help

Increases in temporary hiring are “a classic part of the recovery,” Manpower Inc. Chief Executive OfficerJeffrey Joerres said in a Bloomberg Television interview Dec. 31. The firm is seeing “slow but steady increases in people who are out on assignment. It’s a little bit in every office, which is a good sign because it’s broad-based..”

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, has been a driver of the recovery and is projected to continue to expand. The Institute for Supply Management may report tomorrow itsfactory index rose last month to 54, according to the survey median. The gauge has surpassed the breakeven level of 50 since August.

A separate report from the Commerce Department on Jan. 5 may show factory bookings increased 0.5 percent in November after rising 0.6 percent the previous month, according to economists surveyed.

Another report from the supply managers may show the broader economy returned to expansion in December. The group’s gauge covering non-manufacturing firms, due Jan. 6, probably rose to 50.5, according to the survey median.

Stocks in Second Half

U.S. stocks rallied in the second half of the year as evidence of an economic recovery mounted. TheStandard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 65 percent since sinking to a 12-year low on March 9, ending 2009 at 1,115.1.

Reports on housing this week may show the market slowing after a government tax credit spurred sales earlier in the year.. The National Association of Realtors on Jan. 5 may report that pending sales of existing homes fell 3 percent in November after rising 3.7 percent the prior month, according to the survey median.

Spending on construction projects, due from the Commerce Department tomorrow, may have dropped 0.5 percent in November after no change the month before, the survey showed.

                        Bloomberg Survey

                        Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
ISM Manu Index            1/4       Dec.      53.6      54.0
ISM Prices Index          1/4       Dec.      55.0      58.8
Construct Spending MOM%   1/4       Nov.      0.0%     -0.5%
Pending Homes MOM%        1/5       Nov.      3.7%     -3.0%
Factory Orders MOM%       1/5       Nov.      0.6%      0.5%
Vehicle Sales Mlns        1/5       Dec.      10.9      11.0
Domestic Vehicles Mlns    1/5       Dec.      8.4       8.3
ABC Conf Index            1/5      Jan. 4     -44       -43
MBA Mortgage Applicatio   1/6     Dec. 26    -10.7%     n/a
ADP Payroll ,000’s        1/6       Dec.      -169      -75
 NonManu Index         1/6       Dec.      48.7      50.5
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s   1/8       Dec.      -11        -1
Unemploy Rate %           1/8       Dec.     10.0%     10.1%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s      1/8       Dec.      -41       -35
Hourly Earnings MOM%      1/8       Dec.      0.1%      0.2%
Hourly Earnings YOY%      1/8       Dec.      2.2%      2.1%
Avg Weekly Hours          1/8       Dec.      33.2      33.2
Whlsale Inv. MOM%         1/8       Nov.      0.3%     -0.3%
Cons. Credit $ Blns       1/8       Nov.      -3.5      -5.0

Unemployment Rate may be up a tiny bit at 10,1 %

But I expect things get better from now on.

I don't think we've a double dib Recession


January 7, 2010 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Media, PoliticalDogs Merlin, Politics, Polls, The Economy | , | Leave a comment

Unemplyment rate drops to 10%!…….

The monthly unemployment rate has dropped, instead of climbing, as many people had feared….The Labor department figures are welcomed news, and signal that employers are finally finished with job cuts, and are beginning to rehire…..The halt in the rise of the figure (only 11,000 jobs lost), is also, the best showing since two years ago, when the slide began….

The other good news is that factory orders have risen for the sixth time in seven months, which is a stronger gain then anticipated…..

“We are one step closer today to the stabilization of the labor market,” said Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. “The massive job cuts during the financial crisis last fall were too aggressive and firms will need to rehire staff within the next couple of months.”

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Thursday told U.S. senators the central bank expects the unemployment rate to decline only slowly from next year as the economic recovery remains “moderate.”

December 4, 2009 Posted by | Breaking News, Government, Politics, The Economy | , | Leave a comment

Jobless claims fell more than expected last week……

New claims for unemployment benefits have fallen (20%) to a level not seen since January , in the beginning of this year ……it seems that employers are not letting go as many people as they have been for most of the year when things where at their worst….but as I have reported here, employers are being cautious in rehiring……again..this is normal in an economic recovery…but the average person still doesn’t feel it….making the presidents call for more attention on jobs important…….

November 12, 2009 Posted by | Breaking News, Politics, The Economy | , | Leave a comment

President Obama, happy that the recession is over, turns to the jobs problem……

Just before getting on Air Force One to go to Asia for a week, the president announced obliquely what everyone knows….his re-election (3 years away) will depend on the employment numbers in the fall of 2012…..while he has been successful in stopping the economic slide…the normal employment lag is his main worry for the future…..by increasing the troop levels in Afghanistan …he should be able to buy himself time for that area and problem to cool off till after the next presidential election….but ever mindful of the beating the voters handed out to the two democratic governor’s that lost last week…his handlers have got him to get on his game on employment……

He will hold a jobs summit meeting at the White House in December to show that he is acting on the issue of unemployment and to try to push Congress to help him out….

Maybe that’s why I heard one of House Speaker Pelosi’s deputies speak about a possible second Stimulus bill aimed at government infrastructure assistance this morning…..jobs..people…more jobs….

November 12, 2009 Posted by | Government, Media, Politics, The Economy | , , , , | Leave a comment

Unemployment rises to 10.2%……

While this number is .3% points higher than economists thought it would be…the underlying figures for all of the other economic indicators show that the country is indeed out of the deep recession and very slowly getting better…payroll data and other surveys indicate that employer’s are getting more productivity out the workers currently on the job, while other employers are simply going to wait for things to pick up more (all of this is the typical lag in increased employment, coming out of a economic downturn cycle)….retailers hiring for the holidays will wait until the last few weeks before hiring instead the traditional after Thanksgiving start days…..

Note:…..The stock market has taken the news instride…..remaining above 10,000 points….

Market Summary

At 2:03 PM ET: The major stock indexes are higher today with the S.&P. 500 index gaining 0.14%. Although breadth on the NYSE does not favor either advancing stocks or declining stocks, both small caps and large caps are rallying. Among individual stocks, the top percentage gainers in the S.&P. 500 are International Game Technology and NVIDIA Corporation

…from the NY Times………

November 6, 2009 Posted by | Government, Politics, The Economy | , , , , | 2 Comments

Companies stock up on cash……is this anyway to help the economy?…..

Turns out that companies act a lot like people….when things get rough..they hold on to their money…the Wall Street Journal reports that’s what happening out there….and you know what that means?….instead of hiring, the just sit on that salary money…..and the unemployment numbers continue to lag……

That held figure is at a staggering $994 BILLLION……yes, billion folks……..

November 2, 2009 Posted by | Politics, The Economy | , , , , | Leave a comment