Daniel…..Arkansas Senate: Lincoln leads Halter by 12 Points according to a new Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Mason-Dixon Survey; Boozman has BIG lead in the Republican Primary and leads both Democrats comfortably……

Hello Folks!

No matter how you slice it….. Democrats remain “The Underdogs” in the Arkansas Senate Race.

Worse for them: Their Primary could like North Carolina go into a Run-Off while Republican John N. Boozman (R-AR) could wrap this up on May 18th according to a new Arkansas News Bureau / Stephens Media Mason-Dixon Survey.

In the Democratic Primary Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) leads Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D-AR) by 12 Points while in the Republican Primary U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R-AR) leads ’04 Republican Senate Nominee Jim Holt (R-AR) by a whopping 31 Points with State Senate Minority Leader Gibert Baker (R-AR) further 6 Points behind.

Arkansas News Bureau / Stephens Media Mason-Dixon Survey

Arkansas Senate 2010

Democratic Primary (Trendlines from January)

Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln  44 %  (52 %)
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter  32 %  (34 %)
D. C. Morrison  7 %
Undecided  17 %

Republican Primary

U. S. Rep.  John N. Boozman  48 %
’04 GOP Senate Nominee Jim Holt  17 %
State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker  11 %
State Senator Kim Dexter Hendren  5 %
Businessman Conrad Reynolds  2 %
Businessman Curtis Coleman  1 %
Others  1 %
Undecided  15 %

General Election

U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R)  52 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  35 %
Undecided  13 %

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  49 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  37 %
Undecided  14 %

’04 Republican Senate Nominee Jim Holt (R)  45 %
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D)  40 %
Undecided  15 %

U. S. Rep. John N. Boozman (R)  56 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  32 %
Undecided  12 %

State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker (R)  42 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  34 %
Undecided  24 %

’04 Republican Senate Nominee Jim Holt (R)  42 %
Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D)  36 %
Undecided  22 %

Major Candidates Campaign Websites:

http://www.blancheforsenate.com/home
http://www.billhalter.com/
http://www.boozmanforarkansas.com/
http://jimholt2010.com/
http://senatorgilbertbaker.com/

Here is the Piece from the Arkansas News Bureau:

http://arkansasnews.com/2010/05/06/poll-lincoln-leads-halter-boozman-leads-both-democrats/

Analysis:

Mason-Dixon trends to be pretty spot on with these Numbers PARTICULAR in those Southern States like Florida or Arkansas.

At this Point I still think Lincoln wins outright.

However if Halter closes EVEN further this could go into a Run-Off like North Carolina. The Trendlines for Lincoln don’t look good. When M/D polled the Dem. Primary back in January Lincoln held a 52-34 Advantage so she’s basically down 8 while Halter is only down 2.

The General Election “Leans Republican” no matter if Lincoln or Halter is the Democratic Nominee.

Daniel G.