My friend Daniel here is high on Wisconsin Republican (former Governor and HHS Secrtary), Tommy Thompson …
Thompson has a GOP Primary contest coming up on August 14…
And Tea Party people are after him for being a bit ‘moderate on Healthcare in the past’….
Ouch!
fox6now.com
“While Tommy Thompson has always been at the forefront of health care reform, he has been an aggressive, consistent and outspoken opponent of Obamacare as it harms both the quality of care while introducing 21 new taxes further burdening businesses struggling to make ends meet in an economy driven to a low point by President Obama,” Nemoir said in a statement. “Any effort to say otherwise would be a gross misrepresentation of his position.”
A Marquette Law School poll earlier this month showed the race was tightening ahead of the Aug. 14 primary, with wealthy businessman Eric Hovde closing in on Thompson, and Neumann and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald well behind. Thompson still had a double-digit lead over his opponents and was the only Republican candidate ahead of Rep. Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat running for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl.
The race has enormous implications nationally. A GOP victory in the state would give Republicans a major shot at regaining control of the Senate, which currently stands at 53-47 in favor of the Democrats.
Thompson’s tea party opponents believe that his health care stances give them an opening with GOP primary voters who detest the law. While Thompson has laid out an ambitious plan to replace the health care law, some comments he made before he became a Senate candidate are coming back to haunt him.
In 2006, he hailed the individual mandate included in the Massachusetts health care law. In 2009, he called a Democratic bill approved by the Senate Finance Committee an “important” step to expand coverage and provide “affordable, high-quality health care for all.” Eager to hear praise from a prominent Republican, Obama touted Thompson’s remarks.
More…
July 26, 2012
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Healthcare, Law, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | former HHS Secretary, Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), liked the mandate in the past, Politics, polling, The Tea Pary, wealthy businessman Eric Hovde, Wisconsin GOP Senate Primary |
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Race/Topic (Click to Sort) |
Poll |
Results |
Spread |
Nevada: Romney vs. Obama |
Rasmussen Reports |
Obama 50, Romney 45 |
Obama +5 |
Missouri: Romney vs. Obama |
WeAskAmerica* |
Romney 49, Obama 40 |
Romney +9 |
New Jersey: Romney vs. Obama |
Monmouth University |
Obama 50, Romney 42 |
Obama +8 |
General Election: Romney vs. Obama |
Gallup Tracking |
Obama 46, Romney 46 |
Tie |
General Election: Romney vs. Obama |
Rasmussen Tracking |
Obama 44, Romney 48 |
Romney +4 |
New Jersey Senate – Kyrillos vs. Menendez |
Monmouth University |
Menendez 44, Kyrillos 35 |
Menendez +9 |
Pennsylvania Senate – Smith vs. Casey |
PPP (D) |
Casey 46, Smith 36 |
Casey +10 |
Hawaii Senate – Lingle vs. Hirono |
Honolulu Star-Advertiser |
Hirono 58, Lingle 39 |
Hirono +19 |
Michigan Senate – Hoekstra vs. Stabenow |
PPP (D) |
Stabenow 52, Hoekstra 38 |
Stabenow +14 |
President Obama Job Approval |
Gallup |
Approve 47, Disapprove 47 |
Tie |
President Obama Job Approval |
Rasmussen Reports |
Approve 48, Disapprove 51 |
Disapprove +3 |
These polling dates are from RealClearPolitics…..
July 26, 2012
Posted by jamesb101 |
Breaking News, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Updates, Women | Daily 2012 Polling for 7/26/12, polling, Poltiics |
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Every few years as we get into the election season, we see more polls and much more commentary about the polls. So, from my vantage point of poll watching, I wanted to address a few things I see turning up with frequency in the many comments here. Most of this material is readily available on line, with some expert advice thrown in.
Are weekend polls accurate?
Gallup’s Presidential approval tracker (three day rolling average, MoE plus/minus 3) had had a mini-bump for Obama lately, and on one occasion when I posted on it, the question about whether a weekend Gallup was different than a weekday poll came up, as it has over the years. This story, looking at weekend bias, dates back to 2006:
Democrat Jim Webb has taken the lead over Sen. George Allen of Virginia, according to a pre-election poll released on Tuesday. Allen’s polling consultant rejected the latest results: “Any survey conducted Fridays and Saturdays, everybody knows they’re skewed toward Democrats.” Similar claims have surfaced in news reports about polling data since at least as far back as 2000. What’s so suspicious about weekend polls?…While it’s a common claim that weekend polls favor the Democrats, there isn’t much hard evidence to support that idea. One of the best studies of this question was conducted by two polling experts at ABC News. Gary Langer and Daniel Merkle looked at the data from ABC’s tracking polls for the last three presidential elections. They compared results from people reached on Sunday through Thursday with those reached on Friday and Saturday and found no difference. Among the Sunday-to-Thursday people polled in 2004, 49 percent supported Bush and 46 percent supported Kerry. Polls of the stay-at-home, Friday-to-Saturday crowd produced similar numbers—48 and 46.
Mark Blumenthal had posted on Gallup in 2008 (Day-of-Week Effect in Gallup Daily?) and at that time Gallup’s Jeff Jones responded:
The possibility of a day of the week effect has come up in relation to prior Gallup tracking data, such as for the 1996 and 2000 elections. We carefully examined those data for evidence of such an effect, and did not find anything to suggest a systematic effect.
Mark updated his thoughts for us:
I have not seen any studies showing solid evidence of a weekend effect that would counter the Langer-Merkle findings, but that doesn’t mean no such evidence exists, and it may say more about a lack of studies than a lack of evidence. It is possible that awhile interviews conducted over a weekend create no partisan skew, they do skew other important characteristics or attitudes in ways that pollsters’ standard demographic weighting fails to correct.—Mark Blumenthal
Is primary polling accurate?
Harry J. Enten
Stats guru Harry J. Enten(I love the name of the blog: margin of error) looked at this past week’s Iowa entries and liked what he saw:
The 12/29-30 Selzer & Co. poll found Mitt Romney leading with 24%, Rick Santorum in second with 21%, and Ron Paul in third with 18%. This poll was the only one to correctly forecast first, second, and third place. It was the most accurate in predicting the spread between Santorum and Paul, and second most accurate in estimating the spread between Romney and Santorum.Overall, the 12/29-30 Selzer & Co. poll was the “most accurate” Iowa poll employing ARG’s Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy measure of pollster accuracy. This is not to say that Selzer & Co.’s full four-day (12/27-30) sample should not also be scored. The fact is that it was published as the “main” poll, but I think it’s necessary to point out that the two-day sample was quite accurate.
The Santorum surge was not a surprise… we wrote about it based on the Selzer/Des Moines Register poll two day sample. That isn’t a pat on the back, it’s to make a point: the polling isn’t always right, but it usually is pretty good, and it’s often more accurate than our predictions of what voters will do in a given state based on our biases.And that means that those suggesting Romney can’t win South Carolina or that Santorum’s surge will carry the day because of the evangelical vote needs to look at the polls and see if that’s supported by the data.
Do we have all the data?
We never do. Charlie Cook’s made the point for some time that candidate-driven polling (at least the well-funded national candidates) often have fresher, more detailed and sometimes more accurate data than we have. That doesn’t mean you should accept on face value campaign released polls. That might be the bit of good news released to drive a story while they hold tight onto the large portion of bad news.
Nonetheless, at least pay attention to references to ‘internal polls’ and match them to what we know. In Iowa, there were such references to dropping Ron Paul and Gingrich numbers, which proved to be the case.
At the same time, most media outlets prefer to look only at their own polls, at least on the day of release, so remember to look at them all, weigh their track records, see who they polled, and remember to go back to basics (see 20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results.)
Do these things, and there’ll be a lot less surprises on election day.
January 7, 2012
Posted by jamesb101 |
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Can YOU political junkies believe this?..
A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll shows that nearly half of Americans either believe that President Obama’s signature health care law has been repealed (22%) or they aren’t sure (26%). Only 52% accurately say that it is still the law……
From Politicaldog101…..
February 24, 2011
Posted by jamesb101 |
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USA Today:
The public strongly opposes laws taking away the collective bargaining power of public employee unions as a way to ease state financial troubles, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.
The poll found that 61% would oppose a law in their state similar to one being considered in Wisconsin, compared with 33% who would favor such a law.
So Scott Walker’s plan isn’t just unpopular with the workers whose unions he’s trying to bust, it’s also deeply unpopular with the public at large. Busting up unions, destroying workers’ right to organize is not just a bad idea—it’s a bad idea that nobody wants.
The poll also found that 53% oppose reducing pay or benefits from government workers and that while 47% favored cuts in government programs, 48% opposed such cuts…….
From Dailykos…..
This from Politicaldog101…..
February 23, 2011
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Government, Law, Politics, Polls, Updates | Collective bargaining, polling |
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Hello Folks and Good Afternoon!
We’ve the first Post Primary Poll from Survey USA in Oregon and it shows former Governor John Kitzhaber (D-OR) has some work to do this November. Former NBA Basketball Pro Chris Dudley (R-OR) leads Kitzhaber by 7 Points.
In the Senate Race this November Incumbent Ronald “Ron” Wyden (D-OR) appears to be a SAFE bet for Re-Election at this Point as he leads Republican Jim Huffman (R-OR) by 13 Points.
Note: THE ENTIRE ELECTION WILL BE DONE BY MAIL.
KATU-TV / Survey USA Poll
Oregon Governor
Former NBA Professional Chris Dudley (R) 47 %
Former Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber (D) 40 %
Businessman Jerry Wilson (Progressive Party) 6 %
Undecided 7 %
Oregon Senate
Incumbent Senator Ronald Lee “Ron” Wyden (D) 51 %
Law School Professor Jim Huffman (R) 38 %
Financial Planner Marc Delphine (Libertarian) 4 %
Psychatrist Rick Staggenborg (Green Party) 2 %
Undecided 5 %
Analysis:
5 Months Till Oregon Votes, Former Trailblazer Edges Former Governor for Statehouse; Wyden Strong in US Senate Re-Elect Bid: In an election for Oregon governor today, 06/10/10, Republican Chris Dudley edges Democrat John Kitzhaber, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.
Dudley, a former professional basketball player, has a 14-point lead among men. Among women, the race is tied. When men and woman are combined today, the Republican Dudley has a 47% to 40% advantage. A third candidate, Progressive Jerry Wilson, today gets 6% of the overall vote, 12% of the vote among Independents. Third party candidates have until August 24 to file to appear on the ballot; additional candidates may enter the race.
The Democrat Kitzhaber, Governor of Oregon from 1995-2003, leads only among the youngest, and often least-reliable, voters. Among voters age 35+, Dudley leads. 87% of those who support the Tea Party vote Republican. 80% of those who oppose the Tea Party vote Democrat.
In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, Incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden is elected to a third full term, defeating Republican law school professor Jim Huffman. Wyden leads by 22 points in greater Portland; Huffman leads by 4 points in the rest of Oregon. When those two regions are combined today, the Democrat Wyden has a 51% to 38% advantage.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Oregon adults 06/07/10 through 06/09/10. Of them, 711 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 566 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the November general election. Incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski is constitutionally term limited to two consecutive terms. The election is 100% by mail; ballots will be mailed in October.
Daniel G.
June 11, 2010
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates | Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Oregon Governor race, Oregon Senate Race, polling |
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Hello Folks!
Man, I’m glad this has happened. KOS parted ways with his Polling Company Research 2000.
Fewer work for me as I don’t have to post KOS Polls in my Polling Summaries anymore.
Read the Kos Write-Up:
I have decided to part ways with our current pollster, and will be looking for a new polling partner to finish out this election cycle. The decision was made, in part, on the results of Nate Silver’s new pollster rankings.
Research 2000’s past results aren’t actually as bad as people will try and make them out to be. In fact, if there’s one thing that’s striking about the chart, is how closely clumped together those pollsters actually are. The difference in accuracy between the best and worst pollsters (omitting Zogby’s genuinely crappy internet poll) isn’t very big. As Nate told me via email as he walked me through the results:
The absolute difference in the pollster ratings is not very great. Most of the time, there is no difference at all.
And while many will focus on R2K’s misses in Alabama and Arkansas, fact is they nailed several others, like the Hawaii special, the Nevada primaries, NY-23, etc. Every pollster has hits and misses, and R2K was no different. But in an industry measured in percentages, fact is they underperformed their peers.
I believe in accountability, in accuracy, and in making sure we provide the absolute best information not just to this wonderful community, but also to the outside world. As such, Daily Kos will be on polling hiatus the next several months as we evaluate our options and decide how to best proceed.
Daniel G.
Nate got’m …Huh?
June 9, 2010
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Breaking News, Counterpoints, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Politics, Polls, Updates | DailyKos, Nate Silver ratings, polling, Research 2000 |
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Hello Folks!
The FINAL SURVEY USA Poll in California shows Brown, Whitman and Fiorina in command heading into today’s Vote.
KABC-TV, KFSN-TV, KGTV-TV, KPIX-TV California Survey USA Poll
Governor Race
Democratic Primary
Attorney General Jerry Brown 73 %
Richard Aguirre 4 %
Chuck Pineda Jr. 4 %
4 Minor Candidates combined for 8 %
Undecided 11 %
Republican Primary
Former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman 59 %
State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 30 %
6 Minor Candidates combined for 6 %
Undecided 5 %
Senate Race
Republican Primary
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 48 %
Former U. S. Rep. Tom Campbell 22 %
State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore 16 %
Tim Kalemkarian 2 %
Al Ramirez 2 %
Analysis:
Whitman, Fiorina, Brown Headed to CA General Election; 36 hours until votes are counted in California’s 06/08/10 primary election, three candidates are poised to advance to the general election in November, according to this latest and final SurveyUSA election poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.
In the Republican primary for Governor, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman defeats state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner 2:1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, the race is essentially unchanged.
In the Republican primary for US Senate, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina defeats former Congressman Tom Campbell 2:1. State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore gets 16%; two other candidates are in single digits. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 weeks ago, the race is essentially unchanged.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 California adults 06/03/10 through 06/06/10. Of them, 2,060 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 569 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Republican Primary; 617 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Democratic primary. Early voting began 05/10/10.
Daniel G.
June 8, 2010
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Breaking News, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Men, Politics, Polls, Projections, Updates, Women | Brown, California Governor and Senate Races, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, polling, Whitman and Fiorina |
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Hello Folks and Good Morning!
When PPP released their latest Polling for the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary one Poll was clearly overlooked. Not only polled PPP the Governor Race, they also polled the Republican Primary for South Carolinas 4th Congressional District finding Incumbent U. S. Rep. Robert “Bob” Inglis (R-SC 4) in some ominous shape.
According to their Survey Inglis trails Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R-SC) by 4 Points and with neither of the two likely capturing 50 % of the Vote Inglis could be losing in a Run-Off.
Public Policy Polling Survey
South Carolina 4th Congressional District
Republican Primary
Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy 37 %
Incumbent U. S. Rep. Robert “Bob” Inglis 33 %
IT Consultant Jim Lee 9 %
State Senator David Thomas 9 %
College Professor Christina Jeffrey 5 %
Undecided 7 %
Analysis:
Inglis could be the second Republican House Member to lose Renomination for November.
Daniel G.
June 7, 2010
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Politics, Polls, Updates | Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, polling, South Carolina 4th Congressional Dist GOP Primary |
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Hello Folks and Good Morning!
When PPP released their latest Polling for the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary one Poll was clearly overlooked. Not only polled PPP the Governor Race, they also polled the Republican Primary for South Carolinas 4th Congressional District finding Incumbent U. S. Rep. Robert “Bob” Inglis (R-SC 4) in some ominous shape.
According to their Survey Inglis trails Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R-SC) by 4 Points and with neither of the two likely capturing 50 % of the Vote Inglis could be losing in a Run-Off.
Public Policy Polling Survey
South Carolina 4th Congressional District
Republican Primary
Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy 37 %
Incumbent U. S. Rep. Robert “Bob” Inglis 33 %
IT Consultant Jim Lee 9 %
State Senator David Thomas 9 %
College Professor Christina Jeffrey 5 %
Undecided 7 %
Analysis:
Inglis could be the second Republican House Member to lose Renomination for November.
Daniel G.
June 7, 2010
Posted by jamesb101 |
Blogs, Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, Government, Media, Politics, Polls, Updates | Daniel G @ PolitcalDog, polling, South Carolina 4th Congressional Dist GOP Primary |
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