Andrew Cuomo has some serious decisions to make…..If and When he wins……

Andrew Cuomo…who is running 40% ahead of his Republican opponents…..(Lazio will probably be the weak nominee…Levy , as I expected, seems to be imploding )….

Will have to square his early campaign rhetoric with the reality of New York State Politics….

I have pointed this out before…

I ‘ll do it again….

Shelly Silver, The Labor unions, including the cops, firemen and more important teachers…are a big mother to get past….

Cuomo…like Spitzer is throwing things at them….

Spitzer once in office …..

Lost all momentum to them…

There is no reason to think they will lay down for Cuomo…….

Not after he rode their backs to an election victory…..

For free….

The campaign rollout included asking citizens and incumbent legislators to sign a pledge supporting Cuomo’s “clean up Albany” agenda; several of Cuomo’s worthwhile proposals, such as a requirement that legislators disclose the sources of their outside income, appeared to be aimed at Silver. Surrounded by reporters and cameras yet still sounding barely awake, the speaker shrugged off Cuomo’s idea. “I don’t sign anybody’s pledges,” he said. “Pledges are fixed in time, usually, and they really don’t mean much.”

The Cuomo-Silver exchange hardly qualified as a skirmish. But it did serve as a preview of the treacherous dynamic that awaits Cuomo if he’s elected—and it stirred a depressing sense of déjà vu. Four years ago, New York’s big problems were the budget and the Legislature’s intransigence; a crusading attorney general rode into the governor’s office brandishing an overwhelming margin of victory and promising to drain the Albany swamp. Bashing the Legislature sure didn’t get Eliot Spitzer very far. Cuomo’s fans—and even a few of his antagonists—claim he’ll arrive with more, and more-nuanced, tricks up his sleeve. His 250 page campaign platform is one such tool. “Spitzer’s mandate was a mandate for Eliot Spitzer,” one Cuomo intimate says. “He didn’t really say specifically the things he was going to do that would be controversial with the Legislature. Andrew’s laying out very specific things.”

Spitzer’s main tactic was threatening the seats of legislators who didn’t play ball. Cuomo’s strategy is subtler, involving carrots as well as sticks. The theory is that Cuomo’s pledge and his policy tome will provide cover for incumbents who are running—scared—this fall, and that if they’re reelected, they’ll return to Albany grateful to the new governor for saving their phony-baloney jobs.

Cuomo’s ability to finesse the angles is up for an immediate, serious test: whether to accept the ballot line of the Working Families Party, the alliance of public-employee unions that has quickly become a force in city elections and is looking to retain its statewide reach. Candidate Cuomo’s budget proposals would hit WFP members hard. “If he takes the WFP line, he’s crazy,” a prominent Democratic strategist says. “It will tie his hands as governor.” Yet if Cuomo gives the WFP the back of his hand and then bullies it over the budget, he will find himself in a predicament much like Spitzer’s, facing an array of determined, well-financed enemies. “He has not figured that out,” a Cuomo adviser says. “Andrew respects the constituent players of [the WFP], while he doesn’t agree with them on every policy. He does not want to be at war with any of the people in that group, even those who will bear some real pain if we’re going to get state finances in order.”

More……..

Nate Silver on Southern Primary Polls…..His Take……Those polls are often more than 9 Points off for Democrats….

Nate Silver of FiveTirtyEight finds in his research that Primary polls are notoriously off in their results….

Furthermore he reports that Southern Democrats tend to DO BETTER than most pollsters predict in their races….

Are we going to see some surprises and upsets in the upcoming Southern Primaries?

As we transition from a more generalist mode to focus more specifically on this November’s midterms, I’ve got a lot of of R&D to do. I’m generating a new set of pollster ratings, for instance, and building rigorous forecasting models for both the House and for gubernatorial elections, neither of which we had in place in 2008. These are time-consuming projects, and sometimes might eat into my ability to do day-to-day blogging. But trust me on this one — your patience will be rewarded, and we’ll have some very cool new initiatives to unveil soon.

One nice thing about doing this research, moreover, is that I’m periodically able to discover things that have more immediate relevance. For instance, we have a couple of important Southern coming primaries coming up: Alabama votes tomorrow, and there are key primaries in Arkansas and South Carolina the following week. How much faith should we put in the polls of these races?

The answer is not very much, especially in the case of Democrats. The chart below lists the average error in polls conducted of party primaries from 2000 to the present day, with the results broken down by party and region.**

More……..

The Oligarch Kings…..The United Fruit Company…..The CIA…Coups…And Bananas…..

Although Rockefeller is best remembered for his oil money and his political family – his grandson was Vice President, he had interests in other monopolies too, copper, tobacco and perhaps least recalled – bananas.

He was the money in The United Fruit Company which appeared on the surface to be a fairly anodyne, if not stultifying boring firm engaged in trying to persuade the children of 50’s America in the health giving properties of milk and bananas.  Not exactly world shaking stuff.

Unless you had the misfortune to live in Central America.

The United Fruit Company had plantations in Columbia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Santo Dominica and most infamously Guatemala.  A number of these states have had problematic relations with the USA ever since.  At the height of its powers The United Fruit Company owned a staggering 42% of the entire country of Guatemala and paid not one cent in tax on any of it.

The company also owned the railways, the telephone system, the ports and a large fleet of ships build by some of the finest shipyards in the world.

Not unsurprisingly the people of Guatemala took against this foreign domination, and when offered the opportunity in an election in 1951 to voice an opinion – voted in their droves for Jacobo Arbenz.  Arbenz had suggested the not overly revolutionary idea of buying out some of the lands that the Company was not actually using so that landless people might grow food to eat.  It wasn’t even appropriation.  Arbenz said he would pay them the agreed value The United Fruit Company stated on their own returns.  Cute!  I mean an American company would never ever undervalue its own assets for tax purposes now would it?

The company took umbrage at the utter impertinence of this jumped up peon and aided a coup of disaffected Guatemalan army officers who invaded from Honduras with covert assistance from the CIA in an operation known as PBSUCCESS.  They had persuaded Truman and Eisenhower that Arbenz was going to take the country over to the dark side and ally the country to the USSR.

So, who were these business men?  Well at the time of the Guatemalan coup we find the following closely connected with the board of United Fruit.

John Foster Dulles and the firm of Sullivan & Cromwell, had been legal council for the UFC for decades and John Foster Dulles was also a major shareholder in UFC.  And at the time John Foster Dulles was also the Secretary of State under President Dwight D Eisenhower.  Dulles’s grandfather had also been Secretary’s of State in the time of President Ben Harrison……

More……..

The 'Internet Celebrities'……Three New York guys and camera… doing Satire….On YouTube……

[ They call themselves the Internets Celebrities: from left, Casimir Nozkowski, Dallas Penn and Rafi Kam at a Brooklyn grocery. ]

The three buddies have graduated from just blogging to exploring Urban Myths….On camera…

They developed a following (Yea now that they have been spotlighted in the NY Times …a bigger following)…

For their funny Video rants* on things like……..

• “Bodega”
• “Checkmate”
• “Vend Diagram”
• “Cereal Is Dope”
• “Ghetto Big Mac”

Assailing their targets with staged stunts and gleefully blue language, the three men, all New Yorkers in their 30s, conjure up a world in which Michael Moore might meet Dave Chappelle.

“They have the magic touch, where they can take a topic and turn it into a T-shirt slogan, yet not lose touch with the issue,” said Ben Popken, one of the managing editors of Consumerist.com, a Web site specializing in consumer advocacy and personal finance. “They’re geniuses at doing that.”

Their most recent and ambitious effort, “Stadium Status,” which will be shown for the first time Tuesday evening at the Brooklyn Public Library, takes on local sports franchises that get millions of dollars in tax breaks and other incentives while their neighbors scramble to make ends meet in a sour economy. The idea that luxury lives next door to poverty is not lost on the filmmakers.

“In this city you can have the poorest and the wealthiest, sometimes in the same ZIP code,” Mr. Penn said. “But even in this huge city, people feel separated and that shouldn’t be. I hope our films can show that one way or another we are all connected.”

Befitting an Internet invention, the trio’s origins date back to the days, four years ago, when Mr. Penn and Mr. Kam were fans of each other’s blogs.

“I felt like there was a voice in my head that I didn’t hear anyone else using,” Mr. Penn said. “I wanted to read between the lines, to write about what was going on in New York City with politics, relationships, movies. Anything that came through my head.”

In one blog post, he told readers how to create a Big Mac for a fraction of the cost by combining items from the McDonald’s dollar menu and requesting free items like Big Mac sauce. Some readers may have thought he was promoting the fast-food chain, but Mr. Penn saw himself as a subversive.

“The idea was how do you get over on McDonald’s,” he said. “I didn’t want to just do something that added to their coffers.”

Go get’m guys!……

More……..…..

The ‘Internet Celebrities’……Three New York guys and camera… doing Satire….On YouTube……

[ They call themselves the Internets Celebrities: from left, Casimir Nozkowski, Dallas Penn and Rafi Kam at a Brooklyn grocery. ]

The three buddies have graduated from just blogging to exploring Urban Myths….On camera…

They developed a following (Yea now that they have been spotlighted in the NY Times …a bigger following)…

For their funny Video rants* on things like……..

• “Bodega”
• “Checkmate”
• “Vend Diagram”
• “Cereal Is Dope”
• “Ghetto Big Mac”

Assailing their targets with staged stunts and gleefully blue language, the three men, all New Yorkers in their 30s, conjure up a world in which Michael Moore might meet Dave Chappelle.

“They have the magic touch, where they can take a topic and turn it into a T-shirt slogan, yet not lose touch with the issue,” said Ben Popken, one of the managing editors of Consumerist.com, a Web site specializing in consumer advocacy and personal finance. “They’re geniuses at doing that.”

Their most recent and ambitious effort, “Stadium Status,” which will be shown for the first time Tuesday evening at the Brooklyn Public Library, takes on local sports franchises that get millions of dollars in tax breaks and other incentives while their neighbors scramble to make ends meet in a sour economy. The idea that luxury lives next door to poverty is not lost on the filmmakers.

“In this city you can have the poorest and the wealthiest, sometimes in the same ZIP code,” Mr. Penn said. “But even in this huge city, people feel separated and that shouldn’t be. I hope our films can show that one way or another we are all connected.”

Befitting an Internet invention, the trio’s origins date back to the days, four years ago, when Mr. Penn and Mr. Kam were fans of each other’s blogs.

“I felt like there was a voice in my head that I didn’t hear anyone else using,” Mr. Penn said. “I wanted to read between the lines, to write about what was going on in New York City with politics, relationships, movies. Anything that came through my head.”

In one blog post, he told readers how to create a Big Mac for a fraction of the cost by combining items from the McDonald’s dollar menu and requesting free items like Big Mac sauce. Some readers may have thought he was promoting the fast-food chain, but Mr. Penn saw himself as a subversive.

“The idea was how do you get over on McDonald’s,” he said. “I didn’t want to just do something that added to their coffers.”

Go get’m guys!……

More……..…..

Daniel….Advanced Notice: "The Dogs" MEGA Super Duper Tuesday Primary Election Coverage will be June 8th

Hello Folks!

I’m just giving you (Our Readers) an advanced Notice for “The Dogs Super Duper MEGA Primary Tuesday on June 8th”

Poll Closing Times:

7pm ET

Virginia Primary
South Carolina Primary

8pm ET

New Jersey Primary
Maine Primary

8.30pm ET

Arkansas Run-Off Elections

9pm ET

South Dakota Primary
North Dakota Primary

10pm ET

Montana Primary
Iowa Primary
Nevada Primary

11pm ET

California Primary

Daniel G.

Daniel….Advanced Notice: “The Dogs” MEGA Super Duper Tuesday Primary Election Coverage will be June 8th

Hello Folks!

I’m just giving you (Our Readers) an advanced Notice for “The Dogs Super Duper MEGA Primary Tuesday on June 8th”

Poll Closing Times:

7pm ET

Virginia Primary
South Carolina Primary

8pm ET

New Jersey Primary
Maine Primary

8.30pm ET

Arkansas Run-Off Elections

9pm ET

South Dakota Primary
North Dakota Primary

10pm ET

Montana Primary
Iowa Primary
Nevada Primary

11pm ET

California Primary

Daniel G.

It IS HOT in India right now!…….

From MyDD……

For those of you who prefer celsuis, that’s 50C and that’s the forecast for northern India. Right now it’s 113F across most of the Indian subcontinent though last week the mercury hit 119F in coastal Gujarat. And it’s not even June yet.

The Guardian has more on the heatwave in India which has already claimed hundreds of lives.

Record temperatures in northern India have claimed hundreds of lives in what is believed to be the hottest summer in the country since records began in the late 1800s.

The death toll is expected to rise with experts forecasting temperatures approaching 50C (122F) in coming weeks. More than 100 people are reported to have died in the state of Gujarat where the mercury topped at 48.5C last week. At least 90 died in Maharashtra, 35 in Rajasthan and 34 in Bihar.

Hospitals in Gujarat have been receiving around 300 people a day suffering from food poisoning and heat stroke, ministers said. Officials admit the figures are only a fraction of the total as most of the casualties are found in remote rural villages.

Wildlife and livestock has also suffered with voluntary organisations in Gujarat reporting the deaths of bats and crows and dozens of peacocks reported dead at a forest reserve in Uttar Pradesh.

“Because of the heat, lakes and other water bodies have been reduced to parched land, making dehydration common in such birds,” said Neeraj Srivastava, a wildlife campaigner

More……..

ScottP…….The GOP…….

Happy Memorial Day everyone. While BBQs and swimming pools are a lot of fun, remember those who gave their lives so that we can enjoy those things in peace and freedom.

Reading Jack’s posts over the weekend I have to say he is right. The so called “liberal media” is NOT holding these free market enterprisers to task when it comes to their criticism of the federal government’s handling of the BP spill.

It needs to be pointed out loudly and strongly that the kind of hands off federal government these folks like Rand Paul, Rush Limbaugh, Jim DeMint, Glenn Beck, etc. all want would be POWERLESS to force a private company to clean up their mess.

I used to have an old man neighbor who thought all doctors were quacks and bragged about ignoring their advice to exercise and watch his diet. Then after a massive heart attack he claimed medical science wasn’t doing enough to save him and others in his predicament.

The Republicans are like that crazy old neighbor, claiming no one should interfere on the rights of BP and others to “drill baby drill” but once there is a massive spill they suddenly blame the government for not doing enough to stop it.

Americans need to ask themselves, is “crazy old man neighbor” really a model of leadership?

Obama climbs back in the National Polls……

No matter how hard the GOP tries to tie him down….

This President remains popular……

President Barack Obama has returned to the approval ratings that he received before the divisive healthcare reform vote, Gallup reported in a new poll released Monday.

The poll found Obama at a 54 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable rating. The president’s unfavorability rating after healthcare passed in March was 48 percent.

Meanwhile, 48 percent approve of the job that Obama is doing as president.