SE…..With Predictions on tomorrow’s Primary voting…….

May 18 Primary Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming Primaries on May 18:

KY-SEN GOP Primary:

Paul 53%
Grayson 44%
Stephenson 2%
Martin and Scribner poll either at or below 1%.

KY-SEN DEM Primary:

Mongiardo 51%
Conway 45%
Price 3%
Buckmaster and Farmer poll either at or under 1%.

Paul beats Mongiardo 51-49 in the General.

KY-03 GOP Primary:

Lally 50%
Reetz 41%
Hausman 4%
Durbin 3%
Wicker 2%

Lally loses to Incumbent Democrat Yarmuth 53-47 in the General.

KY-05 DEM Primary:

Prince 59%
Holbert 35%
Stepp 6%

Prince loses to Incumbent Republican Rogers 69-31 in the General.

KY-06 GOP Primary:

Barr 48%
Kemper III 39%
Lockett 8%
Barnes 4%
Pendergrass 1%

Barr loses to Incumbent Democrat Chandler 55-45 in the General.

AR-SEN DEM Primary:

Halter 47%
Lincoln 44%
Morrison 9%

AR-SEN GOP Primary:

Boozman 47%
Baker 24%
Holt 19%
Hendren 7%
Coleman 2%
Alexander, Ramey, and Reynolds will poll either at or below 1%.

I see Boozman beating Halter 55-45 in the General.

More……..

SE-779

SE…..With Predictions on tomorrow's Primary voting…….

May 18 Primary Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming Primaries on May 18:

KY-SEN GOP Primary:

Paul 53%
Grayson 44%
Stephenson 2%
Martin and Scribner poll either at or below 1%.

KY-SEN DEM Primary:

Mongiardo 51%
Conway 45%
Price 3%
Buckmaster and Farmer poll either at or under 1%.

Paul beats Mongiardo 51-49 in the General.

KY-03 GOP Primary:

Lally 50%
Reetz 41%
Hausman 4%
Durbin 3%
Wicker 2%

Lally loses to Incumbent Democrat Yarmuth 53-47 in the General.

KY-05 DEM Primary:

Prince 59%
Holbert 35%
Stepp 6%

Prince loses to Incumbent Republican Rogers 69-31 in the General.

KY-06 GOP Primary:

Barr 48%
Kemper III 39%
Lockett 8%
Barnes 4%
Pendergrass 1%

Barr loses to Incumbent Democrat Chandler 55-45 in the General.

AR-SEN DEM Primary:

Halter 47%
Lincoln 44%
Morrison 9%

AR-SEN GOP Primary:

Boozman 47%
Baker 24%
Holt 19%
Hendren 7%
Coleman 2%
Alexander, Ramey, and Reynolds will poll either at or below 1%.

I see Boozman beating Halter 55-45 in the General.

More……..

SE-779

SE……..Don’t forget the GA-09 Special Election scheduled for May 11……

GA-09 Special Election scheduled for May 11.

Here are the candidates:

Cardiologist Chris Cates (R)
Former State Rep. Tom Graves (R)
Former State Sen. Lee Hawkins (R)
Retired Neurosurgeon Bert Loftman (R)
Former State Sen. Bill Stephens (R)
State Rep. Bobby Reese (R)
Chickamauga City Councilman Steve Tarvin (R)
Hall County Democratic Party Chairman Mike Freeman (D)
Marketing Exective Eugene Moon (Independent)

Thanks SE!

SE……..Don't forget the GA-09 Special Election scheduled for May 11……

GA-09 Special Election scheduled for May 11.

Here are the candidates:

Cardiologist Chris Cates (R)
Former State Rep. Tom Graves (R)
Former State Sen. Lee Hawkins (R)
Retired Neurosurgeon Bert Loftman (R)
Former State Sen. Bill Stephens (R)
State Rep. Bobby Reese (R)
Chickamauga City Councilman Steve Tarvin (R)
Hall County Democratic Party Chairman Mike Freeman (D)
Marketing Exective Eugene Moon (Independent)

Thanks SE!

SE on Lincoln and racism and RedState…….

If you know your history folks …you know that the history taught in the primary and high schools of America is sanitised…..and actually has very little to do with what REALLY happened in the past….

With that in mind ……SE has sent the Dog a RedState piece that gets into some things that the Great Emancipator President Lincoln uttered back when……

If you are up on your history you’ve known that Lincoln wrote the Emancipation Proclamation because he was worried about the Union…..Not about Slaves…

You would also know that the document only covered the area’s of the Union that the North controled……

The Dog has known that for a long time….

When I went to college back in the day…..

History was my major……..

The RedState piece is mostly correct…..

Lincoln who is viewed as a hero of Civil Rights….. Was Not….at the time…..

He did what he had to do to save the United States of what was then America…..

But his actions…what ever they where originally for……. have be turned into something more that Lincoln could ever have though of…

And THAT  we shall all embrace and be thankful for…….

So there’s right back  At Ya RedState.!…….

Here’s the Link.……

SE @ Conservative State Project Endorses John Hostettler for Indiana Senate-Revised and Updated …..

From SE…….

Joining John Oxendine, Sue Lowden, Mick Mulvaney, Mike Vasovski, and Chuck Purgason on our roster of endorsements is former Congressman John N. Hostettler, and here’s the issues and a list of his accomplishments in the House that bring me to my decision:
The Issues:

1. Taxes and Spending: Mr. Hostettler believes that it is not that the federal government taxes too little, it is that it spends too much. As a member of the House, Hostettler consistently voted for tax cuts including the creation of the child tax credit, lowering of capital gains rates and dividend tax rates, accelerated depreciation schedules and the phase out and outright elimination of the estate tax, and that fundamental tax reform is necessary to grow the economy and create long term job growth. He voted to repeal the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution, which authorized the income tax. He also believes that if all taxpaying Americans were compelled to write a check to the federal government for the taxes that are currently withheld, those same Americans would demand that Congress reduce spending and stop taking so much of their hard-earned income. If elected, he will work in the Senate to make permanent the tax cuts passed in 2001 and scheduled to sunset in 2011.

2. Health Care: Mr. Hostettler opposes the government takeover of the US health care system recently passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama. He believes that Congress should allow for more competition and work to reduce health care costs by building on the success of Health Savings Accounts by making all health insurance premiums either deductible or a tax credit, creating Health Marts and Association Health Plans which allow individuals and families to negotiate collectively for health care services based on where they live and on their profession, religion, membership in an organization, etc., allowing health insurance plans to be purchased across state lines, and enacting tort reform, which will result in lower health care costs because medical professionals will not be compelled to practice “defensive medicine” which they do now for no other reason than to defend themselves in a potential lawsuit. If elected, Mr. Hostettler will work to repeal ObamaCare and work to bring our health care system out of the Federal Government’s grip.

3. Abortion: Mr. Hostettler is pro-life, period. He believes that we are endowed by our Creator with certain unalienable rights, and that first and most important of these God-given rights is the right to life. In Congress, Hostettler has voted for the Partial Birth Abortion Ban, the Mexico City Policy which prohibited the use of US taxpayer dollars for abortion and abortion counseling in foreign countries, and the Right to Life Act which would give legal protection to the unborn under the Fourteenth Amendment. As a result of this record, Mr. Hostettler’s election to the House of Representatives was consistently endorsed by the National Right to Life and Indiana Right to Life. If elected, he will not give his consent to a judicial nominee if he concludes that the nominee in question believes the constitution allows the destruction of innocent, unborn human life.

4. Marriage: Mr. Hostettler believes that marriage is between one man and one woman. In Congress, he co-sponsored and voted for the Defense of Marriage Act, the utilization of Congress’ authority under Article IV of the United States Constitution to regulate full faith and credit relationships and protects states that do not issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples from being compelled to recognize such licenses issued by states that do, and the Marriage Protection Act, the utilization of authority found in Article III to limit the appellate jurisdiction of the United States Supreme Court. If elected, he will introduce DOMA and MPA and push for their passage so that Indiana is not compelled by a federal court to recognize same-sex marriage licenses issued by another state.

5. Guns: Mr. Hostettler is a staunch defender of our Second Amendment Rights. He is a gun owner and hunter. As a Congressman, he voted to repeal the Clinton Gun Ban on semi-automatic firearms and magazines, led the effort to defund the Smith & Wesson agreement between that manufacturer and the Clinton Administration that would have given preferences to Smith & Wesson after its previous corporate leadership arranged a deal in order to get out of legal proceedings against the gun industry, led the effort to allow civilian airline pilots to carry firearms on board after the 9/11 tragedy was perpetrated by terrorists who were able to overpower pilots and fly airplanes into buildings and a rural field, and sponsored legislation to allow national reciprocity for conceal and carry of firearms. As a result of this record, Mr. Hostettler’s election to the U.S. House of Representatives was consistently endorsed by the National Rifle Association and Gun Owners of America. He will build on the above if he is elected.

More……..

SE-779

SE…..The 2010 Senate Races …..so far……

Here’s my take on the 2010 Senate races 8 months out.

Retiring Incumbents:

CT-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd is retiring. On the Democratic side, Software Executive Merrick Alpert, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, and former Greenwich First Selectman Roger Pearson are in the running. On the Republican side, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, former Congressman Rob Simmons, and Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Shiff are in the running. I expect Blumenthal and Simmons to emerge from their respective Primaries. At this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

DE-SEN: Appointed Democratic US Senator Ted Kaufman will not stand for election. The Democrats have unified behind behind New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. On the Republican side, Congressman Mike Castle, Political Consultant Christine O’Donnell, and Child Advocate Carlet Deetta Ward are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind School Mentoring Volunteer Wendy Jones. I see Castle handily emerging from his Primary. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

FL-SEN: Appointed Republican US Senator George LeMieux will not stand for election. On the Republican side, Mechanical Engineer Bob Coggans, Governor Charlie Crist, Attorney Linda Vasquez Littlefield, Thomas Mangum, Evangelist Gwyn McClellan, Attorney Belinda Noah, former Speaker of the Florida State House Marco Rubio, former New Hampshire US Senator Bob Smith, Businessman Shawn Teeters, and Physician Marion Thorpe Jr. are in the running. On the Democratic side, Pastor Tyrone Brown, North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns, former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferré, Raphael Herman, ’02 Okaloosa County School Board Candidate Chuck Lynch, Congressman Kendrick Meek, and Retired Postal Worker Lawrence Penpeck are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Prison Ministry Group Founder Bernie DeCastro. The Libertarians have unified behind Business Account Manager Alex Snitker. The Veterans Party has unified behind Businessman Dennis Bradley. On the Independent side, Lewis Armstrong, Farmer Bobbie Bean, College Professor Piotr Blass, Pest Management Company Co-Owner Todd Oifer, and Accountant Dave Roberts are in the running. I expect Rubio and Meek to emerge from their Primaries, Rubio 57-38 over Crist and Meek 75-14-8 over Burns and Ferre. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

IL-SEN: Appointed Democratic US Senator Roland Burris will not stand for election. The Democrats nominated State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The Republicans nominated Congressman Mark Kirk. The Libertarians nominated Engineer Mike Labno. On the Independent side, Health Insurance Agency Owner John Blyth, Greenville City Councilor Will Boyd Jr., Attorney Michael Dorsey, Businessman Stan Jalga, Apostolic Minister Eric Wallace, and Bob Zadek are in the running. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

IN-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh is retiring. The Democrats have unified behind Congressman Brad Ellsworth. On the Republican side, Bank Branch Manager Don Bates Jr., Plumbing Contractor Richard Behney, former US Senator Dan Coats, former US Representative John Hostettler, and State Senator Marlin Stutzman are in the running. The Independents have unified behind 08′ Gubernatorial candidate Timothy Lee Frye. I see Hostettler emerging over Stutzman and Coats 45-29-26. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

KS-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Sam Brownback is running for Governor. On the Republican side, Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are in the running. On the Democratic side, Retired Communications Executive Charles Schollenberger and Attorney Stanley Wiles are in the running. I see Moran narrowly beating out Tiahrt and Schollenberger defeating Wiles in their respective Primaries. At this point, I rate this race SAFE REPUBLICAN.

KY-SEN: Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Bunning is retiring. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, Business Executive Bill Johnson, World War II Veteran Gurley Martin, Physician Rand Paul, Jon Scribner, and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction John Stephenson are in the running. On the Democratic side, Physician James Buckmaster, Attorney General Jack Conway, Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo, former US Customs Agent Darlene Price, and Farmer Maurice Sweeney are in the running. The Independents have unified behind Convenience Store Operator John Long. I expect Paul and Conway to emerge from their Primaries. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

MO-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Christopher Bond is retiring. On the Republican side, Congressman Roy Blunt, Electrical Contractor Davis Conway, Iraq War Veteran Hector Maldonado, Car Salesman Mark Memoly, Database Technician Kristi Nichols, Architect Bob Praprotnik, State Senator Chuck Purgason, Police Officer James Schmidt, Marketer Deborah Solomon, and Repairman Mike Vontz are in the running. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and retired Federal Employee Francis Vangeli are in the running. On the Constitution side, Businessman Jerry Beck and retired Furniture Maker Joe Martellaro are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Jonathan Dine. The Progressives have unified behind State Party Co-Chair Midge Potts. I see Blunt prevailing over Purgason 53-32 and Carnahan destroying Vangeli 96-4. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

ND-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Byron Dorgan is retiring. On the Republican side, Governor John Hoeven and Retired Navy Officer and Businessman Duane Sand are in the running. The Democrats side has no announced candidates to date, but State Senator and 08′ Gubernatorial nominee Tim Mathern is a potential candidate. I expect Hoeven to pound Sand in the Primary. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

NH-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Judd Gregg is retiring. On the Republican side, former State Representative Tom Alciere, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, Businessmen Jim Bender and Bill Binnie, and former State Board of Education Chair Ovide LaMontage are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind US Representative Paul Hodes. The Libertarians have unified behind Realtor Ken Blevens. I expect LaMontage to teabag Ayotte to death in the Primary. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

OH-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator George Voinovich is retiring. The Republicans have unified behind former Congressman and former Bush OMB Director Rob Portman. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Electrical Engineer Eric Deaton. The Socialists have unified behind University Instructor Dan LeBotz. On the Independent side, Medical Researcher Eric LaMont Gregory, Businessmen Stephen Lahanas and Dave Myers, Engineer Bill Pierce, and IT Consultant Adam Shaffer are in the running. I see Fisher emerging 55-45 over Brunner. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

Senators standing for re-election:

AL-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Richard Shelby is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Shelby. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney William Barnes. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

AK-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Lisa Murkowski is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Murkowski. The Democrats have unified behind Attorney Frank Vondersaar. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

AZ-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator John McCain is running for re-election. On the Republican side, McCain, Fire Protection Systems Contractor Jim Deakin, former Congressman JD Hayworth, and Verde Valley Justice of the Peace William Lundy are in the running. On the Democratic side, former Bell Gardens California Mayor Rudy Garcia, Tuscon City Councilor Rodney Glassman, and Teacher Stuart Starky are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Risk Management Consultant Rick Biondi. On the Independent side, Iraq War Veteran Leonard Clark and Management Consultant Ian Gilyeat are in the running. I see McCain emerging over Hayworth, Lundy, and Deakin 50-42-6-2. I see Glassman prevailing over Starky and Garcia 65-29-6. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

AR-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Blanche Lincoln is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Lincoln, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, and DC Morrison are in the running. On the Republican side, Business Consultant Randy Alexander, State Senators Gilbert Baker, Kim Hendren, and Jim Holt, Congressman John N. Boozman, Businessman Curtis Coleman, FedEx Truck Driver Fred Ramey, and retired Army Officer Conrad Reynolds are in the running. The Greens have unified behind Greenland Mayor John Gray. On the Independent side, Businessman Jasper Beede, Larry Buffington, Writer Adam Cat, UPS Employee Trevor Drown, and Technology Consultant Christopher Nogy are in the running. I see Halter crushing Lincoln and Morrison 55-43-2. I see Boozman winning the Primary with 39%. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

CA-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Barbara Boxer is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Boxer. On the Republican side, former Congressman Tom Campbell, State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Steven Greyclanus, Businessman Al Ramirez, and Evangelical Pastor Mosheh Thezion are in the running. The AIP’s have unified behind Chiropractor Don Grundmann. The Greens have unified behind Community Organizer Duane Roberts. The Libertarians have unified behind former State Party Chairwoman Gail Lightfoot. The Independents have unified behind Jerry Leon Carroll. I see Campbell emerging over Fiorina and DeVore 40-34-26. At this point, I rate this LEANS DEMOCRAT.

CO-SEN: Appointed Democratic US Senator Michael Bennet will stand for election. On the Democratic side, Bennet and former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff are in the running. On the Republican side, Attorney Steve Barton, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Physician Robert Greenheck, Water Conservancy District Manager Gary Kennedy, Investor Vincent Martinez, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, Businessman Cleve Tidwell, Confectionery Distribution Company Owner Mark Van Wyk, and State Senator Tom Wiens are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Businessman Maclyn Stringer. I see Romanoff prevailing over Bennet 53-47. I see Norton prevailing over Buck, Wiens, Kennedy, Tidwell, Barton, Martines, Greenheck, and Van Wyk 42-39-12-4-1-1 and the rest below 1%. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

GA-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Johnny Isakson is running for re-election. The Republicans are unifying behind Isakson, the Democrats are unifying behind former Rockdale County Commission Chief of Staff RJ Hadley, and the Libertarians are unifying behind Chuck Donovan. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

HI-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Daniel Inouye is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Inouye. The Republicans have no announced candidates, but Governor Linda Lingle is a potential candidate. At this point, if Lingle runs, I rate this LEANS DEMOCRAT. If she doesn’t, then I rate this SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

ID-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Mike Crapo is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Crapo. The Demmocrats have unified behind Attorney William Bryk. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

IA-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Chuck Grassley. The Republicans have unified behind Grassley. On the Democratic side, former US Attorney Roxanne Conlin, former State Senator Tom Fiegen, former State Representative Bob Krause, and Engineer Sal Mohamed are in the running. I see Conlin defeating Krause, Fiegen, and Mohamed 67-21-11-1. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

LA-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator David Vitter is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Vitter and Porn Star Stormy Daniels are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind Congressman Charlie Melancon. The Libertarians have unified behind Refinery Supervisor Anthony Gentile. The Independents have unified behind retired Volunteer Fire Chief Bob Lang. I see Vitter blowing Daniels(out of the water) 83-17. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

MD-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Barbara Mikulski is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Mikulski. On the Republican side, former State Delegate Carmen Amedori, Engineer Daniel McAndrew, Businessman John Curran, Attorney Jim Rutledge, Limousine Company Owner Corrogan Vaughn, anf Queen Anne’s County Commissioner Eric Wargotz are in the running. The Independents have unified behind retired Minister Robert Brookman. I see Wargotz prevailing over Amedori, Vaughn, McAndrew, Curran, and Rutledge 45-40-9-3-2-1. At this point, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

NV-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Harry Reid is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Reid. On the Republican side, former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, Investment Banker John Chachas, State Assemblyman Chad Christensen, former State Board of Education Member Greg Dagani, Dentist Chuck Flume, Attorney Chuck Kozak, former State GOP Chair Sue Lowden, Business Administrator Mark Noonan, Project Manager Bill Parson, and Businessmen Terry Suominen and Danny Tarkanian are in the running. The IAP’s have unified behind Businessman Tim Fasano. The Libertarians have unified behind Radio Talk Show Host Jim Duensing. On the Independent cside, Jerry Carter, Businessman Jeff Durbin, Michael Haines, Jessie Holland, Jeffrey Reeves, and Wil Stand are in the running. I see Lowden defeating Tarkanian and Angle 49-25-19 with the rest polling single digits. At this point, I rate this LEANS REPUBLICAN.

NC-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Richard Burr is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Burr, Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks, Electronics Store Owner Brad Jones, and former State Representative Larry Linney are in the running. On the Democratic side, former State senator Cal Cunningham, Accountant Susan Harris, Attorney Kenneth Lewis and Marcus Williams, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and Minister W. Ann Worthy are in the running. The Libertarians have unified behind Business Consultant Mike Beitler. I see Burr trouncing Burks, Linney, and Jones 79-12-7-2. I see Cunning have narrowly scoring an upset with the help of the Liberal Grassroots 43-42-8-4-1-1 over Marshall, Lewis, Harris, Williams, and Worthy. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

NY-SEN A: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Chuck Schumer is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Schumer, Comedian Randy Credico, 08′ State Assembly candidate Lumies Huff, and Illinois Political Consultant Phil Krone are in the running. The only announced Republican candidate is GOP Activist Martin Chicon, but CNBC TV Show Host and Economist Larry Kudlow is considering getting in this race. At this point, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRAT.

NY-SEN B: Appointed Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will stand for election. On the Democratic side, Gillibrand, Oral Surgeon Scott Noren, and former National Writers Union President Jonathan Tasini are in the running. On the Republican side, former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman and former Congressman Joe DioGuardi are in the running. The Conservatives have unified behind Businessman Jaques Ditte. The Constitution Party has unified behind Religious Right Activist Jan Johnson. The Greens have unified behind Civil Servant Jeff Peress. I see Gillibrand crushing Tasini and Noren 74-20-6. I see Blakeman defeating DioGuardi 55-45. St this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

OK-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Tom Coburn is running for re-election. The Republicans have unified behind Coburn. The Democrats have no announced candidates, but Governor Brad Henry is a potential candidate. At this point, if Henry runs, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED. If he doesn’t, then I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

OR-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Ron Wyden is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Wyden, Fitness Instructor Pavel Goberman, and Farmer Loren Hooker are in the running. On the Republican side, Businessmen Kareem Hamdy and Loren Later, Businesswoman Robin Parker, Realtor Tom Stutzman, and Construction Artisan Tradesman Walter Woodman. The Greens have unified behind Psychiatrist Rick Staggenborg. The Libertarians have unified behind Financial Planner Marc Delphine. Wyden will defeat Hooker and Goberman 85-13-2. The Republican Primary is a TOSSUP. Regardless of who wins, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRAT.

PA-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Arlen Specter is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Specter, Congressman Joe Sestak, and Machinist Joe Vodvarka are in the running. On the Republican side, Conservative Activist Peg Lusisk and former Congressman and former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey are in the running. The Greens have unified behind Physician Assistant Mel Packer. The Libertarians have unified behind Businessman Larry Murphy. The Independent Americans have unified behind Pastoral Degree Student Mike Yilit. I see Sestak pulling an upset with the help of the Liberal Grassroots 49-47 over Specter. I see Toomey defeating Lusisk 72-28. At this point, I rate this a TOSSUP.

SC-SEN: Incumbent GOP US Senator Jim DeMint is running for re-election. The GOP has unified behind DeMint. On the Democratic side, Attorney Chad McGowan and retired Auto Company Executive Mike Ruckes are in the running. I expect Ruckes to defeat McGowan in the Primary. At this point, I rate this REPUBLICAN FAVORED.

SD-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator John Thune is running for re-election.The Republicans have unified behind Thune. The Democrats have no announced candidates, but State Senator Nancy Turbak Berry is considering the race. Whether or not Berry runs, thIS race is SAFE REPUBLICAN.

UT-SEN: Incumbent Republican US Senator Bob Bennett is running for re-election. On the Republican side, Bennett, Business Consultant Tim Bridgewater, Businesswoman and Conservative Activist Cherilyn Eager, Attorney Mike Lee, and Businessman James Williams are in the running. The Democrats have unified behind State Alcohol Beverage Control Commissioner Sam Granato. I expect Eager to teabag Bennett to death at the convention. At this point, I rate this SAFE REPUBLICAN.

VT-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Pat Leahy is running for re-election. On the Democratic side, Leahy and Physician Daniel Freilich are in the running. The Republicans have unified behind Lumber Store Owner Len Britton. On the Independent side, Cris Ericson and John LaPierre Jr. are in the running. I expect Leahy to trounce Freilich in the Primary. At this point, I rate this SAFE DEMOCRATIC.

WA-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Patty Murray is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Murray. On the Republican side, Physician Arthur Coday Jr., State Senator Don Benton, former Pro Football Player Clint Didier, Truck Driver Wayne Glover, Electrical Engineering Instructor Scott Johnson, Businessmen Rod Rieger and Chris Widener, Chiropractor Sean Salzar, and Energy Trader Craig Williams are in the running. I see Benton emerging over Didier, 44-29 with the rest polling in the single digits. At this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

WI-SEN: Incumbent Democratic US Senator Russ Feingold is running for re-election. The Democrats have unified behind Feingold. On the Republican side, Real Estate Developer Terrence Wall and Businessman Dave Westlake are in the running. The Constitution Party has unified behind Cumberland City Alderman Rob Taylor. I see Wall defeating Westlake 59-41. At this point, I rate this DEMOCRAT FAVORED.

SE -779

From SE…..Former Reagan Secretary of State Alexander Haig has Died….

Via CNN:

Alexander Haig, who managed the Nixon administration during the Watergate crisis and served a controversial stint as secretary of state under President Reagan, died on Saturday. He was 85.

Haig died at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland, after he was admitted there on January 28, spokesman Gary Stephenson said.

“He served his country well. For that he should be remembered,” said William Bennett, who was secretary of education during the Reagan administration. “He carried himself well. He carried himself with dignity and honor.”

The White House issued a statement mourning Haig, saying he “exemplified our finest warrior-diplomat tradition of those who dedicate their lives to public service.”

A top official in the administrations of three presidents — Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan — Haig served as Nixon’s chief of staff during the Watergate political crisis, a scandal that dogged the administration in the 1970s.

“There was a time during the Watergate crisis when President Nixon was nearly incapacitated,” said political analyst and CNN contributor David Gergen, who worked with Haig during the Nixon and Reagan administrations. “He had a hard time focusing, so obviously obsessed with the scandal and the gathering storms around him. I watched Al Haig keep the government moving. I thought it was a great act of statesmanship and service to the country.”

RIP

SE-779…..

SE on John Oxendine……

Are Icarus’s Wings Melting or is it Just Me?

Here’s a gem from the printing presses of fake journalism and faux-Consevatism:

When At First The Ox Does Not Succeed, He Must Fail, Fail Again.

John Oxendine’s first attempt to shake down Lynn Westmoreland didn’t go so well. The result was a bit of a political dust up and mostly just a little more embarrassment to a man that apparently has no shame.

But instead of leaving well enough alone, Ox has decided to double down on stupid, and has drawn many others into the PR debacle surrounding his investigation into the failed Southeastern US Insurance, formerly owned by Clark Fain. Fox5 in Atlanta ran a story this week showing that many Georgia politicians, including Governor Sonny Perdue, have enjoyed hunting trips complete with flights to them on Fain’s private plane.

Behind the scenes, some are getting nervous about the reflection on the Republican party as a whole, and it was under this guise that Matt Towery called Congressman Westmoreland last week emphatically telling him he had to drop his claims against Oxendine. Towery documented the number of politicians connected with SEUS and numerous claims were made about the issue taking the whole party down. For the good of the party, Lynn needed to stand down.

The curious thing about this phone call, however, is that it was made from the office of one John Oxendine. According to two of my sources, Oxendine was in the room and listened to the call.

This story grows even more bizarre when put into context with this Insider Advantage story that Matt Towery suffered a head wound a couple of weeks ago, and almost died. The story includes this surreal paragraph indicating that a team of old line Republicans apparently are credited with his ongoing medial care:

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (for whom Towery served as political chairman during his years as Speaker), former Senator Mattingly, and current Senator Johnny Isakson (with whom Towery is very close) have basically joined legislators such as former Speaker Mark Burkhalter and former Rules Chair Earl Ehrhart to see to it that Towery makes a full recovery. Former Governor Roy Barnes intervened as well to assist Towery as did Attorney General Baker. Speaker Ralston and former Speaker Richardson also both assisted.

The story seems to be placed as pre-emptive damage control, as the incident happened “several weeks ago”, but the call to Westmoreland happened one week ago, and the IA story ran Monday. After all, Towery was suffering from a concussion, and he’s beloved by the old Republican guard. So, let’s just pretend the call didn’t happen and call a do-over I guess…

The question remains as to why Towery allowed himself to be dragged into the middle of this. He generally is considered to be a bright man, and understands that Ox is on the verge of toxic. So why was Towery calling a Congressman who gave exactly one interview on this topic weeks ago asking him to stand down? Why was this call made with Oxendine present?

I guess if I was being asked these questions, I would add Dick Pettys’ name to a story I wrote claiming I had a bad head injury too.

It should be clear to all now who are paying attention that Oxendine is no longer interested in serving the people of Georgia, but is instead interested in how the power of his office can serve him. Stories like this are beyond embarrassing, and when the story behind the story comes out, it always gets worse.

It is time for State Republican leaders, elected and grass roots alike, to say enough to John Oxendine. He should resign as Insurance Commissioner, and he should withdraw from the Governor’s race.

I don’t know about you, but I think the SEUS investigation is legitimate, and Westmoreland’s attacking Ox for going after them should shine some light on what may be his shady connections with SEUS. And the fact that Towery and Ox were in the same room when the call was placed is probably mere coincidence, as Ox may have had files to look through at the time. And I don’t see anything wrong with some of Towery’s friends helping him recover from a very serious head injury. Oxendine is committed to serving the people of this fine state, and has done so for the past 15 years as our Insurance Commissioner. Godspeed to Ox and may he become the greatest Governor in out Nation.

SE on the Indiana Senate Bayh Retirement……

From SE….

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh will not seek re-election this year, a decision that hands Republicans a prime pickup opportunity in the middle of the country.

“After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so by serving in Congress has waned,” Bayh will say.

Bayh will announce the decision at a press conference later today. He was first elected to the Senate in 1998 and was re-elected easily in 2004. National Republicans had recruited former Sen. Dan Coats to challenge Bayh in 2010 although polling suggested Bayh began the race with a 20-point edge. He also had $13 million in the bank at the end of the year.

Prior to being in the Senate, Bayh served two terms as governor of the Hoosier State. He also served briefly as Secretary of State.

This is great news. Now if the GOP would coalesce behind former Congressman John Hostletter, that would be great. Possible Democratic replacements are Congressmen Peter Visclosky, Joe Donnelly, Andre Carson, Brad Ellsworth, and Baron Hill. Your thoughts.

The Dog thoughts are that this seat goes from Safe democratic to ??????